5 ms·

Hadn't looked for a few days. It does appear to be attenuating--hope that holds up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak h

• Filligree 7y ago
  Keep in mind, the right model is a large number of overlapping S-curves. The virus may spread like wildfire once it's entered a city, but it first has to do so. Wuhan is nearing the top of its S-curve, while other cities are still near the start. As such it would make sense for the number of cases to slow down even if it isn't actually being stopped.
• jnurmine 7y ago
  Not sure of attenuation since according to the Wikipedia page they are now excluding asymptomatic infections from the statistics, which lowers the number of confirmed. The Wikipedia page says: "On 6 February, the Chinese National Health Commission started to change how cases were reported – asymptomatic carriers, who tested positive for the virus but did not show clinical symptoms, would no longer be included in the number of confirmed cases. This had the effect of reducing the total number of cases reported, but also meant that potentially contagious individuals were ignored in reports."
  • downerending 7y ago
    Oh my. That's one way to get the numbers looking better.
  • whoevercares 7y ago
    I think the reporting criteria changed again. Now it’s based on CT/other clinical symptoms and the number increased 15000+ In a single day!
• totalZero 7y ago
  These numbers come from an overwhelmed, propagandist third-world authoritarian government. It is surprising to me that anyone would simply accept them as fact.