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I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.
by justinzollars 7y ago
I just can't understand why the stock market keeps going up.
- treebornfrog 7y agoApparently zoom has been going up because more people will work remotely during this period. Crazy.
- justinzollars 7y agookay. Zoom makes sense.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- snarf21 7y agoInterest rates are negative. This causes people to chase and a big factor in this bubble. Companies are borrowing billions for free to do stock buybacks and keep the price going straight up. Nothing lasts forever. When is the big question.
- echelon 7y agoAre people trying to get in and out before the crash to make a quick buck, or are they long and hope to buy at a position cheaper than hypothetical post-recovery prices?
- jliptzin 7y agoTime not in the market is more expensive than timing the market.
- Balgair 7y agoIf r/wallstreetbets is any indicator, they have no plan whatsoever and are total idiots. Given Hanlon's Razor, 9/10 people on the market are similar.
- totalZero 7y agoI think it's both. This rally has made people think that the market will outperform in the long run, but even those who believe we're in a bubble have some confidence that we haven't gone entirely euphoric yet. I personally believe we have gotten to the brink of chaos. Foxconn has major issues getting employees back to work, and Apple has shut down stores in China, but AAPL stock is up. AMD is taking market share from Intel, but INTC rallied almost 10% on earnings. Iran launched missiles at a couple of bases housing Americans, and the market rallied the next day. Boeing stock is trading more than double where it was when the 737 Max 8 took its maiden flight. Everyone mentions in passing that equity values are inflated but nobody seems to give a damn. Maybe people have gotten burned so many times fading the rally during the past three years that they've just given up on trying to call the top. My money says it's all going to come crashing down eventually. Markets can remain irrational longer than impatient traders can remain solvent, but they have a way of normalizing sooner or later.
- snarf21 7y agoI agree completely. The Fed also can't keep QE programs forever. I think if the Democrats win in the fall, it could be a major trigger. There is no reason to think they won't intend to roll back the tax cuts and push for anti-trust against most FAANG seems likely too. Given how FAANG dominates the S&P, it could spiral quickly. The only question is when and how bad will it be. I think we need a real down cycle because just turning down the burner temporarily means the pop will be even worse.
- totalZero 7y agoBuybacks don't inflate the market cap, in theory. What does happen, however, is that many modern buyback deals include a bid that gets more aggressive as the stock trades down. So in a selloff, the buyback actually supports the stock more than in a rally. This reduces downside volatility and prevents panic. The debt problem is a huge issue, but with interest rates as low as they are, it's not entirely crazy to say "we think we will return more in capital gains from buying our own stock than we will be charged in interest for the loan to do so."
- eanzenberg 7y agoBecause it's not materially affecting American business.
- ct0 7y agoUntil supply becomes so limited it effects sales.
- unlinked_dll 7y agoIt would affect prices first. The real question mark is if it gets bad enough to where people default on their debt payments (there's over $13 trillion out there today) because the price of basic goods gets too high.
- koheripbal 7y agoyet. ... and stocks are forward expectations of company performance.
- testfoobar 7y agoNo clue about the stock market. But here is some interesting real-time traffic congestion data plotted with 2019 averages for cities. Gives a sense of how many people are going back to work. Scroll down and click "Last 7 days" Notice SF & London are trending with 2019 averages: SF: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/san-francisco-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/san-francisco-tra... London: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/london-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/london-traffic Then compare: Wuhan: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/wuhan-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/wuhan-traffic Shanghai: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/shanghai-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/shanghai-traffic Beijing: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/beijing-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/beijing-traffic Shenzen: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/shenzhen-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/shenzhen-traffic Hong Kong: https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/hong-kong-traffic https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/hong-kong-traffic
- justinzollars 7y agoThis is a great resource. Thanks
- totalZero 7y agoThis is amazing data...I never knew this was available. Thanks for sharing. What a totally dramatic falloff in the Asian cities.
- thearn4 7y agoInterestingly, cities in India seem to be at a lower traffic level than 2019 too. Maybe it's related to other factors?
- buboard 7y agowhere would you take your money when interest rates are negative? (also how do you avoid a crash when interest rates stop being negative)
- JohnJamesRambo 7y agoBitcoin, Ethereum.
- Amarok 7y agoGiven the short to long term treasury bond yield inversion in 2019, I'm preparing for a recession in 2021 by keeping 10% cash and clearing off all debt. I also implemented a higher risk strategy when I rebalanced my portfolio at beginning of year: hedging a few healthcare stocks with predictions of around 6% returns, but could see a higher payoff if covid-19 hysteria sets in. Skeptical of crypto performance during a recession, so rebalanced to 3%
- sub7 7y agoThere's been a grand fiscal policy experiment over the last 12 years unlike anytime before. It has resulted in every asset class losing price discovery mechanisms and basically becoming untethered from fundamentals. Nobody knows how this will end, or when. Could be months, could be decades.
- core-questions 7y agoRelax and enjoy the MMT, friend. Worked for the Romans! https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5386693ce4b05d183bf2dd16/t/53aca2bce4b0dcbdb88aad86/1403822780199/Malchow_QuantitativeEasingofRome.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5386693ce4b05d183bf2d...
- totalZero 7y agoI agree with your comment about the fiscal policy experiment, but not with your stated timeline of 12 years. QE was a smart way out of the crisis, but we didn't tighten as we ought've when the economy got up to speed about five years ago. I think of QE as the choke on a carbureted engine; once you get things heated up, you should lean out the mixture. Meanwhile, Bernanke is still out here talking about QE as a forever tool for the Fed. Fundamentals try to explain and predict valuations; they don't dictate them. Only supply and demand, within the constraints of the market, can control valuations. And to be pedantic, price discovery is faster and tighter today than ever before, and that's part of the reason we have so many lively derivatives markets. The problem, as you aptly point out, is that this price does not fit any model that is blind to the rates component of equity demand. The word "untethered" is totally appropriate for what's happening in the market; there's a disconnect between price action and corporate earnings growth because there's demand for equities in general when everything else yields almost nothing.
- downerending 7y agoThere's a theory out there that traders think the Sanders win(s) mean that Trump will end up winning in the fall, and that that will keep business conditions friendly. That has a certain ring of plausibility, though I'm skeptical of all explanations of market behavior.
- robjan 7y agoStock prices are (generally speaking) about the sentiment of the long term performance of a company. The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem. As long as a company can survive this short term loss of productivity there is no need for the stock valuation to be lowered.
- mantap 7y ago> The coronavirus has caused a lot of setbacks but it's only a short term problem We hope it's only a short term problem. It's far to early to say if this outbreak will be contained somehow, if it will continue into the summer, or if it will go away for the summer and come back in the winter again like the flu.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoContainment seems to be working pretty well, if you compare the dynamics of it in China (and on the quarantined cruise ship) to the dynamics of it everywhere else.
- aza05001 7y agoContainment in China is not going well. Other countries containment + quarantining China is going well.
- _-___________-_ 7y agoThat is exactly my point -- other countries are effectively containing the virus to China, and it appears to be working very well.
- mantap 7y agoOnly a minority of countries are doing that. It might work now because most cases are in China. If self-sustaining outbreaks run out of control in Thailand and Singapore, will travellers from there be blocked too? It quickly becomes a game of cat and mouse.
- totalZero 7y ago1Y Treasuries are yielding around 1.5% right now, while the S&P has rallied 22% in the past year. If you were to park your money somewhere, you would at least consider equities. The Fed ought to be smoothly unloading some of its balance sheet or otherwise increasing rates, but Mr. Trump doesn't seem too happy about that prospect. Most of the Americans who support him seem to think the Dow Jones is a report card for the economy. Mr. Trump has publicly badgered Powell regarding rate hikes in the recent past. It definitely feels like people believe the market is going to get even more euphoric, in which case one is tempted to be long in order to ride the bubble all the way up.
- topmonk 7y agoThe Fed has been buying treasuries and doing repo market purchases recently, expanding their balance sheet and dumping billions into the financial economy. Those funds have to move somewhere.