3 ms·
Your 'approximation' is doing a lot of the work here.. Since you have a binomial distribution why not just use it directly? (1 - 2e-6)^(3e6) ≈ 0.002 So about
by TimonKnigge 7y ago
Your 'approximation' is doing a lot of the work here.. Since you have a binomial distribution why not just use it directly?
(1 - 2e-6)^(3e6) ≈ 0.002
So about 0.2%. Still highly unlikely but orders of magnitude more likely than what your normal distribution-detour gave.
- petrogradphilos 7y ago> (1 - 2e-6)^(3e6) ≈ 0.002 Using the binomial directly is a good way to get the probability of 0 heads. Note, though, that the U.S. population is in the neighborhood of 300 million, not 3 million (as you seem to have used). (1 - 2⋅10⁻⁶)^(3⋅10⁸) ≈ 10⁻²⁶¹ https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281+-+2+*+10%5E-6%29%5E%283*10%5E8%29 https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%281+-+2+*+10%5E-6%29%...