> Managers are so deeply prejudiced against the idea that their job requires predicting something which is intrinsically unpredictable, that they will refuse to

> Managers are so deeply prejudiced against the idea that their job requires predicting something which is intrinsically unpredictable, that they will refuse to believe this regardless of how much evidence is presented Good quote. The tool I linked to is in part built to provide evidence of the difficulty of prediction. > The real lesson is that knowing the estimate, doesn't really tell you much about how long it will take Yes and no. My guess is that most teams can improve their accuracy to some degree if they track their accuracy over time. I agree in your greater point of inherent unpredictability though.