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The more I read about this, the more I wonder about the reliability of mortality rates generally. Or at least, for diseases where diagnosis depends on DNA-based
by mirimir 7y ago
The more I read about this, the more I wonder about the reliability of mortality rates generally. Or at least, for diseases where diagnosis depends on DNA-based testing.
I mean, it seems likely that pretty much everyone who dies will be tested. Except for victims of auto accidents or whatever.
But it also seems likely that many with minimal symptoms won't be tested. Perhaps because hospitals are so busy that people can't be bothered. Or maybe because people are afraid of hospitals, because they're full of sick people. Or simply because there's inadequate testing capability.
So isn't it likely that mortality will always be overestimated for such specific diseases? As opposed to, for example, auto accidents or falls.
- swsieber 7y agoFrom what I've read it's highly unlikely the dead will be tested. Just cremate them and move on. At least, that's what it seems like with all the tales of death certificates with cause of death as "Unknown viral pneumonia"
- lostlogin 7y ago> From what I've read it's highly unlikely the dead will be tested. Not only that, but are the Chinese authorities going to accurately report that numbers?
- n0rbwah 7y agoAt this point, I'm not sure to see any reason for them to lie about it except for the force of habit.
- DuskStar 7y agoAnother reason would be that on a day-to-day basis it's easier to say "yeah we had 100 deaths yesterday" than it is to say "we've been lying, there were 1,000 deaths yesterday and 10,000 so far with 500,000 infected in Wuhan by our estimates". Which would probably also cause a wee bit of panic, too. If that's actually the case, of course.
- tcoff91 7y agoThat’s why they usually use a statistical model to estimate how many people are infected with a virus rather than only using the number of confirmed cases.
- heavyset_go 7y ago> I mean, it seems likely that pretty much everyone who dies will be tested. Except for victims of auto accidents or whatever. Availability of test kits is the bottleneck for accurate statistics, and they aren't being used on the dead because there are many more living people who are symptomatic and need them.
- mirimir 7y agoReally? I mean, there are so many fewer dead than potentially infected who may just have a cold. But if that's true, it just confuses things more.
- DuskStar 7y agoIf there's a thousand people dying of pneumonia every day in Wuhan and you have capacity to test 2,000 people, do you spend half of that capacity on the dead? Or do you try and test the "maybe" cases who might or might not be infected and shouldn't be put in a ward with whole bunch of infected people?
- koheripbal 7y ago> it seems likely that pretty much everyone who dies will be tested. Anecdotal reports out of China estimate that less than half of the dead are taken from hospitals.