3 ms·
Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asympto
by eyegor 7y ago
Today the cdc had a press conference announcing the quarantine release of 195 people who flew into the US from Wuhan, based on the assumption that being asymptomatic for 14 days is good enough [0]. Last I heard, WHO is calling the upper limit on incubation 24 days. This release is being done without any actual testing.
Edit: seems all I can find from WHO is 14 days, the 24 day estimate was from this paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... (thanks to u/pmorici below)
[0] https://youtu.be/JW1ntWFiZNI https://youtu.be/JW1ntWFiZNI
- viraptor 7y agoHave you got a link for the 24 days? The best I could find is that we're totally guessing things at this point. CDC says: > CDC believes at this time that symptoms of 2019-nCoV may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 after exposure. This is based on what has been seen previously as the incubation period of MERS viruses.
- eyegor 7y agoApologies, I'm not sure if I misremembered, misattributed, or if that was an actual previous estimate from WHO. Everything I can find now seems to be around 14 days, with the Japanese govt using 16 as a lower bound for the cruise ship. I swear WHO was publishing 24 in a sitrep last week, maybe I just haven't found it yet. From the WHO Q&A page, > Current estimates of the incubation period range from 1-12.5 days with median estimates of 5-6 days. These estimates will be refined as more data become available. Based on information from other coronavirus diseases, such as MERS and SARS, the incubation period of 2019-nCoV could be up to 14 days. WHO recommends that the follow-up of contacts of confirmed cases is 14 days. https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses
- remote_phone 7y agoWHO never reported a 24 day incubation period. There was a paper that talked about 24 days but that was a single patient and the more likely scenario is that the person was wrong about the timing or got infected at a later time period.
- pmorici 7y agoThe 24 days reference is from this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...
- viraptor 7y agoThanks! For the record, the actual quote is: > The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)
- pmorici 7y agoFor a explanation of the possible cause of the 24 day outlier see this YouTube video starting around 6 minutes https://youtu.be/o804wu5h_ms https://youtu.be/o804wu5h_ms
- stanski 7y agoWhat do you mean without actual testing? Those people have been under observation for two weeks. Never heard of this 24 day incubation period. Every country is using 14 as a guideline. Sounds like fear mongering to me.
- eyegor 7y agoSee edit on my first post for clarification on the 24 day estimate. And by no testing, I meant the lack of PCR/RT-PCR assays. Which is specifically mentioned in the video around 1:20. Edit: WHO lab test guidelines if you're curious: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/laboratory-guidance https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
- TheCuckedKing 7y agoThey were at a US military base.. Surely the US military has better information than the WHO...
- glandium 7y agoWanna talk about quarantine fails? Japan let some of their repatriates loose without quarantine because they had "important reasons". They went home, and while invited to stay home, who knows what they did in the two weeks since... Today it was announced that one of them was now positive for 2019-nCoV. One of the quarantine workers on the Diamond Princess (the cruise ship stuck in quarantine in Yokohama) was found positive. Now they have to track his family too.