3 ms·

That data looks quite delayed, I'd check this one out https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https:/

That data looks quite delayed, I'd check this one out https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
This is the data for mainland China, and it looks to be of an order with the data you cite. I think the main risk is whether the China data is accurate. I read the article subsequent to my comment and I realized that this interview accounts for the downward second derivative. The answer is: perhaps controls are working, or perhaps China is unable to test so many new cases. I'm inclined to believe the first hypothesis because apparently they were able to test 4.5k new cases in a day a few weeks ago. It doesn't really make sense to me that they would subsequently be able to test only 2.5k.
- droithomme 7y ago
  Numbers went down because they changed the method of counting. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490 > In a notice issued by China's National Health Commission (NHC) on Feb. 6, it wrote that the classification of new Wuhan virus infections will be divided into four categories: "suspected cases," "clinically diagnosed cases," "confirmed cases," and "positive tests." Among these, "positive tests" refers to "asymptomatic infected patients" who test positive for the disease but have no symptoms. > There is also a clear stipulation in the official document stating that "If the reported 'asymptomatic infected patient' has clinical manifestations, their status shall be revised to 'confirmed case' in a timely manner" (highlighted text in Tweet below). This indicates that even if a person tests positive for the disease but does not exhibit any symptoms, they will no longer be included in the daily infection reports. (the notice cited: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/content_5475813.htm http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/content_54758...)
mensetmanusman 7y ago
Is it possible there are no cases in Africa? Or will that be a black hole for a decade until their economy reaches some minimum...

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago

This is the data for mainland China, and it looks to be of an order with the data you cite. I think the main risk is whether the China data is accurate. I read the article subsequent to my comment and I realized that this interview accounts for the downward second derivative. The answer is: perhaps controls are working, or perhaps China is unable to test so many new cases. I'm inclined to believe the first hypothesis because apparently they were able to test 4.5k new cases in a day a few weeks ago. It doesn't really make sense to me that they would subsequently be able to test only 2.5k.

droithomme 7y ago
Numbers went down because they changed the method of counting. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490 > In a notice issued by China's National Health Commission (NHC) on Feb. 6, it wrote that the classification of new Wuhan virus infections will be divided into four categories: "suspected cases," "clinically diagnosed cases," "confirmed cases," and "positive tests." Among these, "positive tests" refers to "asymptomatic infected patients" who test positive for the disease but have no symptoms. > There is also a clear stipulation in the official document stating that "If the reported 'asymptomatic infected patient' has clinical manifestations, their status shall be revised to 'confirmed case' in a timely manner" (highlighted text in Tweet below). This indicates that even if a person tests positive for the disease but does not exhibit any symptoms, they will no longer be included in the daily infection reports. (the notice cited: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/content_5475813.htm http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/content_54758...)

mensetmanusman 7y ago

Is it possible there are no cases in Africa? Or will that be a black hole for a decade until their economy reaches some minimum...