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>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Ma

by Zenst 7y ago

>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Market. However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if they are listed. Equally, the usual suspects in vaccines will be all hedged by the money market in trading from now until a winner (vaccine found) is made. Which will probably be around the time for winter 2020 flu vaccine from what I've read so far from best estimates. That all said, if they said London would get 1" of snow, the amount of panic would be greater than what we are seeing so far. But that may well change quickly, though at least we never had a flu riot that I'm aware of in history.

Xamayon 7y ago
The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese demand is high enough these days that those mfgs are probably just selling the few they have domestically.
- matt_the_bass 7y ago
  I just tried buying some today. It was tough to find any that didn’t seem like garbage. I found 2 cotton washable ones on amazon for way too much money. But I have a trip to Korea on Monday. So I figured it would be prudent. My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.
  - jrs235 7y ago
    >My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots. Correct.
    - matt_the_bass 7y ago
      Plus they make others feel better since they don’t know anything about if I’m sick or not.
- mensetmanusman 7y ago
  Many Chinese manufacturers of face masks ‘rebrand’ them as 3M (i.e. counterfeit...)

by Zenst 7y ago

Xamayon 7y ago

The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese demand is high enough these days that those mfgs are probably just selling the few they have domestically.

matt_the_bass 7y ago
I just tried buying some today. It was tough to find any that didn’t seem like garbage. I found 2 cotton washable ones on amazon for way too much money. But I have a trip to Korea on Monday. So I figured it would be prudent. My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.
- jrs235 7y ago
  >My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots. Correct.
  - matt_the_bass 7y ago
    Plus they make others feel better since they don’t know anything about if I’m sick or not.
mensetmanusman 7y ago
Many Chinese manufacturers of face masks ‘rebrand’ them as 3M (i.e. counterfeit...)