4 ms·

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A l

by ericb 7y ago

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.

iamdamian 7y ago
Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. > GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier. > LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published yet, but the evidence for that that’s been peer reviewed is quite limited.
- mantap 7y ago
  I think what laypeople and experts mean by "asymptomatic" is different and contributes to talking past each other. One of the first symptoms of this coronavirus is a dry cough. These people would not be considered asymptomatic in the technical sense because clearly they have a symptom. However a cough is such a common thing that healthy people do all the time, in a practical sense a person who only has a cough is functionally asymptomatic and able to go about their daily lives. It is only when they develop a fever that they become sick enough to notice.
- incompatible 7y ago
  The case of Steve Walsh is interesting, given that he apparently infected several others before being hospitalized "despite showing no symptoms". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-several-coronavirus-cases-speaks-hospital-steve-walsh https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-...
- droithomme 7y ago
  > it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half... > At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers. > Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.

by ericb 7y ago

iamdamian 7y ago

Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. > GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier. > LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published yet, but the evidence for that that’s been peer reviewed is quite limited.

mantap 7y ago
I think what laypeople and experts mean by "asymptomatic" is different and contributes to talking past each other. One of the first symptoms of this coronavirus is a dry cough. These people would not be considered asymptomatic in the technical sense because clearly they have a symptom. However a cough is such a common thing that healthy people do all the time, in a practical sense a person who only has a cough is functionally asymptomatic and able to go about their daily lives. It is only when they develop a fever that they become sick enough to notice.
incompatible 7y ago
The case of Steve Walsh is interesting, given that he apparently infected several others before being hospitalized "despite showing no symptoms". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-several-coronavirus-cases-speaks-hospital-steve-walsh https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-...
droithomme 7y ago
> it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half... > At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers. > Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.