5 ms·

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way

by devit 7y ago

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

mrfusion 7y ago
Stock markets are saying no, right?
- ethbro 7y ago
  Stock markets dominated by semi-intetested participants are terrible at predicting unlikely events.
  - jerf 7y ago
    Everyone is terrible at predicting unlikely events. If you think you've got a better bead on it, it doesn't take all that much money to buy some options.
    - ethbro 7y ago
      See quip about market remaining irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
thom 7y ago
If you can put aside morals for a moment, you could make a killing just buying and selling face masks for the next few months.
- thrwaway69 7y ago
  You just gave me a good idea. Thanks! I am gonna open a site for giving free mask through crowdsourcing in many needed places.
  - Fomite 7y ago
    There was, IIRC, a campaign doing this a few bad wildfire seasons ago.
- dntbnmpls 7y ago
  Why not get with the times and give the face masks away for free and just collect the data and sell the data? Targeted nyquil and chicken soup ads could be a valuable commodity.
- GuiA 7y ago
  Good luck procuring them at any sort of scale right now. If you are in a position to do this (because you own a mask factory or you found 20 pallets of face masks in your garage or something) you probably didn’t wait for an HN comment telling you to do it :P
wendyshu 7y ago
There's https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-before-2021/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-wil...
ericb 7y ago
Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.
- iamdamian 7y ago
  Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. > GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier. > LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published yet, but the evidence for that that’s been peer reviewed is quite limited.
  - mantap 7y ago
    I think what laypeople and experts mean by "asymptomatic" is different and contributes to talking past each other. One of the first symptoms of this coronavirus is a dry cough. These people would not be considered asymptomatic in the technical sense because clearly they have a symptom. However a cough is such a common thing that healthy people do all the time, in a practical sense a person who only has a cough is functionally asymptomatic and able to go about their daily lives. It is only when they develop a fever that they become sick enough to notice.
  - incompatible 7y ago
    The case of Steve Walsh is interesting, given that he apparently infected several others before being hospitalized "despite showing no symptoms". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-several-coronavirus-cases-speaks-hospital-steve-walsh https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-...
  - droithomme 7y ago
    > it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half... > At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers. > Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.
foota 7y ago
I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.
- wtvanhest 7y ago
  I literally gritted my teeth when I read this. https://www.google.com/search?q=S%26P&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS862US862&oq=S%26P&aqs=chrome..69i57.911j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?q=S%26P&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS862US8...
  - foota 7y ago
    Don't worry, it wasn't anything I wasn't okay losing :)
    - totalZero 7y ago
      Depending on your strike and maturity, you may not lose anything. If the entire market sells off hard, correlation will go to 1 in the slide. Index options tend to price in some expectation of this (it's called "correlation skew") for downside options. So you'll make money on three things in a slide: * delta, ie the slide itself, * vega, ie the increased expectation of volatility for the remaining duration of the option contract, * skew, which will increase more for index options than for single names due to implied correlation resetting higher. I have noticed that the market seems to be in a "buy any dip" mentality, so be aware of that. If the market sells off, it may come right back the next day. Look at what happened already with the coronavirus outbreak, as well as Iran's missile launches before that.
      - kk58 7y ago
        Can you recommend a good source to learn more about how options trading works in real life? Id like to know how you guys generate trading ideas, come up with bet size, study market sentiments etc
        wtvanhest 7y ago
Zenst 7y ago
>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Market. However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if they are listed. Equally, the usual suspects in vaccines will be all hedged by the money market in trading from now until a winner (vaccine found) is made. Which will probably be around the time for winter 2020 flu vaccine from what I've read so far from best estimates. That all said, if they said London would get 1" of snow, the amount of panic would be greater than what we are seeing so far. But that may well change quickly, though at least we never had a flu riot that I'm aware of in history.
- Xamayon 7y ago
  The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese demand is high enough these days that those mfgs are probably just selling the few they have domestically.
  - matt_the_bass 7y ago
    I just tried buying some today. It was tough to find any that didn’t seem like garbage. I found 2 cotton washable ones on amazon for way too much money. But I have a trip to Korea on Monday. So I figured it would be prudent. My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.
    - jrs235 7y ago
      >My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots. Correct.
marshray 7y ago
Metals futures seem pretty responsive. E.g., https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/HG_/W https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/HG_/W
Sindrome 7y ago
Crypto clearly reacting
- McTossOut 7y ago
  Flight to quality... Put it all on scep256k1
451 7y ago
Metaculus is reputation based, not real money. They have a market for coronavirus, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-question-two/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infe... Currently has a 3% chance of infecting more than 1 billion and 50% chance of infecting more than by 865k by 2021

by devit 7y ago

Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That seems like the only way to get some clarity on this.

mrfusion 7y ago

Stock markets are saying no, right?

ethbro 7y ago
Stock markets dominated by semi-intetested participants are terrible at predicting unlikely events.
- jerf 7y ago
  Everyone is terrible at predicting unlikely events. If you think you've got a better bead on it, it doesn't take all that much money to buy some options.
  - ethbro 7y ago
    See quip about market remaining irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

thom 7y ago

If you can put aside morals for a moment, you could make a killing just buying and selling face masks for the next few months.

thrwaway69 7y ago
You just gave me a good idea. Thanks! I am gonna open a site for giving free mask through crowdsourcing in many needed places.
- Fomite 7y ago
  There was, IIRC, a campaign doing this a few bad wildfire seasons ago.
dntbnmpls 7y ago
Why not get with the times and give the face masks away for free and just collect the data and sell the data? Targeted nyquil and chicken soup ads could be a valuable commodity.
GuiA 7y ago
Good luck procuring them at any sort of scale right now. If you are in a position to do this (because you own a mask factory or you found 20 pallets of face masks in your garage or something) you probably didn’t wait for an HN comment telling you to do it :P

wendyshu 7y ago

There's https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-before-2021/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-wil...

ericb 7y ago

Not sure about betting markets, but I'd put the odds really really high. It has a near-perfect combination of traits that make it spread really effectively. A latency window long enough to let people get around the world, combined with asymptomatic spread is pretty hard to stop. I can't even figure out how you could detect it well enough to stop it.

iamdamian 7y ago
Based on the article, it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. > GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier. > LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published yet, but the evidence for that that’s been peer reviewed is quite limited.
- mantap 7y ago
  I think what laypeople and experts mean by "asymptomatic" is different and contributes to talking past each other. One of the first symptoms of this coronavirus is a dry cough. These people would not be considered asymptomatic in the technical sense because clearly they have a symptom. However a cough is such a common thing that healthy people do all the time, in a practical sense a person who only has a cough is functionally asymptomatic and able to go about their daily lives. It is only when they develop a fever that they become sick enough to notice.
- incompatible 7y ago
  The case of Steve Walsh is interesting, given that he apparently infected several others before being hospitalized "despite showing no symptoms". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-several-coronavirus-cases-speaks-hospital-steve-walsh https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/uk-man-linked-...
- droithomme 7y ago
  > it's not clear that the virus exhibits asymptomatic transmission. https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half-of-secondary-virus-infections-occur-in-incubation-period-study.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/255501851d48-half... > At least one of every two instances of human-to-human transmission of the new coronavirus is believed to occur while the first patient is not yet showing symptoms, according to an estimate by a group of Japanese university researchers. > Based on its determination, the team, headed by Hokkaido University professor Hiroshi Nishiura, has called for preventive measures as well as reinforcing the medical care system against a potential sharp rise in coronavirus patients, rather than focusing exclusively on isolation as a way to contain the disease.

foota 7y ago

I bought some put options on the S&P index a couple weeks ago.

wtvanhest 7y ago
I literally gritted my teeth when I read this. https://www.google.com/search?q=S%26P&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS862US862&oq=S%26P&aqs=chrome..69i57.911j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 https://www.google.com/search?q=S%26P&rlz=1C1GCEB_enUS862US8...
- foota 7y ago
  Don't worry, it wasn't anything I wasn't okay losing :)
  - totalZero 7y ago
    Depending on your strike and maturity, you may not lose anything. If the entire market sells off hard, correlation will go to 1 in the slide. Index options tend to price in some expectation of this (it's called "correlation skew") for downside options. So you'll make money on three things in a slide: * delta, ie the slide itself, * vega, ie the increased expectation of volatility for the remaining duration of the option contract, * skew, which will increase more for index options than for single names due to implied correlation resetting higher. I have noticed that the market seems to be in a "buy any dip" mentality, so be aware of that. If the market sells off, it may come right back the next day. Look at what happened already with the coronavirus outbreak, as well as Iran's missile launches before that.
    - kk58 7y ago
      Can you recommend a good source to learn more about how options trading works in real life? Id like to know how you guys generate trading ideas, come up with bet size, study market sentiments etc
      - wtvanhest 7y ago

Zenst 7y ago

>Is there any betting market that is taking bets and has good volume on whether there is going to be a novel coronavirus pandemic? That would be the Housing Market. However, the biggest impact may very well be the reaction in the public towards this and that in itself would cause more avenues of betting. Like facemask filters, only so many get made, so whatever companies make that will see a share price increase, if they are listed. Equally, the usual suspects in vaccines will be all hedged by the money market in trading from now until a winner (vaccine found) is made. Which will probably be around the time for winter 2020 flu vaccine from what I've read so far from best estimates. That all said, if they said London would get 1" of snow, the amount of panic would be greater than what we are seeing so far. But that may well change quickly, though at least we never had a flu riot that I'm aware of in history.

Xamayon 7y ago
The problem with face mask filter stocks (like 3m) in this case seems to be that while demand has hugely increased, ability to deliver has actually gone down. The supply is constrained by just in time delivery/minimal stockpiling, and the fact that 99% of them are made in china which has basically shut down all nonessential factories. 3m also re-brands many chinese mfg's face masks/filters, and the local chinese demand is high enough these days that those mfgs are probably just selling the few they have domestically.
- matt_the_bass 7y ago
  I just tried buying some today. It was tough to find any that didn’t seem like garbage. I found 2 cotton washable ones on amazon for way too much money. But I have a trip to Korea on Monday. So I figured it would be prudent. My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots.
  - jrs235 7y ago
    >My understanding is that masks offer only minor protection against getting it, but help a lot against spreading it. They don’t stop a virus but they catch the snots. Correct.

marshray 7y ago

Metals futures seem pretty responsive. E.g., https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/HG_/W https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/HG_/W

Sindrome 7y ago

Crypto clearly reacting

McTossOut 7y ago
Flight to quality... Put it all on scep256k1

451 7y ago

Metaculus is reputation based, not real money. They have a market for coronavirus, https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-question-two/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infe... Currently has a 3% chance of infecting more than 1 billion and 50% chance of infecting more than by 865k by 2021