4 ms·

From a reliable source, a Western journalist who was evacuated, this article's information seems accurate. It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are,

From a reliable source, a Western journalist who was evacuated, this article's information seems accurate. It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported. Also, it's compounded by the delay of information having to go to intermediaries before reaching international journalists. And, there are some isolated instances of bodies on the streets and in crashed cars of people not making it to the hospital before expiring, and then not being collected quickly because of fearful coroners/undertakers... which is expected in a minor pandemic in a densely-populated city. I would bet there are at least a dozen dead bodies on the street right now of the 400+ people who die in NYC's five boroughs every day. Even if it were Ebola-deadly and infectious as an airborne-mutated norovirus, sustained isolation of population members can kill any pathogen because its transmission rate drops to insignificant and then 0.

ryanwaggoner 7y ago
Where did you get 400+ deaths per day in NYC? That sounds really high; I bet it’s well under half that. Here’s all I could find with cursory search: https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/TriciaMui.shtml https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/TriciaMui.shtml
ardy42 7y ago
> It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported. Definitely. IIRC, to be counted in the official statistics, an infected person has to have significant contact with the medical system, but the medical system in Wuhan has been so overloaded that people have been turned away in large numbers so that diagnostic work is not being done in many cases. There are reports of many people dying at home in Wuhan, which wouldn't be counted as part of the official statistics. I've also heard reports that the crematoriums in Wuhan are also overloaded, and aren't allowed to report any statistics except to the government. I don't think we'll know the full impact for a long time, until someone can some kind of excess mortality study with individualized vital records.
- tim333 7y ago
  If I were betting I'd bet over 5x https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/ https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavi...
  - ardy42 7y ago
    I'm skeptical of the Chinese government's statistics, but I'm also skeptical of those sources: https://www.ccn.com/about-us/ https://www.ccn.com/about-us/: > CCN.com, also known as CCN Markets, was founded in the summer of 2013 in Norway by serial entrepreneur Jonas Borchgrevink as “CryptoCoinsNews.com”. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-tied-to-steve-bannon-is-writing-fake-news-about-the https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-t...: > A Site Tied To Steve Bannon Is Writing Fake News About The Coronavirus > Founded by an exiled billionaire and critic of the Chinese government, G News claimed without proof that China was prepared to admit the disease originated in its labs.
    - tim333 7y ago
      Yeah I'll give you that. I'd guess the truth is somewhere in the middle. That said the basic claim "... alleges Wuhan has crematoriums working 24/7" seems backed by other sources. Even the Chinese government admits it's figures are only tested cases and they can't test everyone.

ryanwaggoner 7y ago

Where did you get 400+ deaths per day in NYC? That sounds really high; I bet it’s well under half that. Here’s all I could find with cursory search: https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/TriciaMui.shtml https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2005/TriciaMui.shtml

ardy42 7y ago

> It's difficult to tell what the current numbers are, or even what they will be because of censorship, but you can bet it's 2-5x what's reported. Definitely. IIRC, to be counted in the official statistics, an infected person has to have significant contact with the medical system, but the medical system in Wuhan has been so overloaded that people have been turned away in large numbers so that diagnostic work is not being done in many cases. There are reports of many people dying at home in Wuhan, which wouldn't be counted as part of the official statistics. I've also heard reports that the crematoriums in Wuhan are also overloaded, and aren't allowed to report any statistics except to the government. I don't think we'll know the full impact for a long time, until someone can some kind of excess mortality study with individualized vital records.

tim333 7y ago
If I were betting I'd bet over 5x https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll-is-over-50000/ https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-whistleblower-wuhan-coronavi...
- ardy42 7y ago
  I'm skeptical of the Chinese government's statistics, but I'm also skeptical of those sources: https://www.ccn.com/about-us/ https://www.ccn.com/about-us/: > CCN.com, also known as CCN Markets, was founded in the summer of 2013 in Norway by serial entrepreneur Jonas Borchgrevink as “CryptoCoinsNews.com”. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-tied-to-steve-bannon-is-writing-fake-news-about-the https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/janelytvynenko/a-site-t...: > A Site Tied To Steve Bannon Is Writing Fake News About The Coronavirus > Founded by an exiled billionaire and critic of the Chinese government, G News claimed without proof that China was prepared to admit the disease originated in its labs.
  - tim333 7y ago
    Yeah I'll give you that. I'd guess the truth is somewhere in the middle. That said the basic claim "... alleges Wuhan has crematoriums working 24/7" seems backed by other sources. Even the Chinese government admits it's figures are only tested cases and they can't test everyone.