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I'm more responding to the idea that programming might become simple and automated, and we can't even predict technological changes a year or two out. You're ri

I'm more responding to the idea that programming might become simple and automated, and we can't even predict technological changes a year or two out. You're right that Python could be relegated to a niche language in 20 years. That does happen. What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s, despite the incredible increase in computing power, ubiquity of computers and much better tooling and environments for programming languages. There's no evidence that this is going to change anytime soon. All the popular new languages are similar to the popular older languages. If people don't want to program in JS, they transpile from Typescript. Even web assembly is a means to use a language like Rust on the web. There's no simple, automated PL on the horizon that is going to replace JS, Java, Python, etc. There isn't one for spreadsheets, either, which is a technology from the 80s.

JadeNB 7y ago
> What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s I think the rise of HLLs is an example of a fundamental change. It was still reasonable to be hand-writing assembler for lots of applications in the '60s.
- goatlover 7y ago
  Sure, but HLLs are decades old and ubiquitous by the 80s. There's no reason to think PLs are going to fundamentally change in 20 years. They could, but it's just speculation at this point.
  - edw 7y ago
    The argument over whether C was fast enough to obviate the need to write in assembly raged across the pages of Dr Dobb's Journal and Byte Magazine well into the mid '80s.
    - goatlover 7y ago
      And that supports the argument that PL evolution is slow and unlikely to fundamentally change in 20 years time. Anyway, while people where arguing over C vs Assembly, there were Lisp and Smalltalk machines that didn't become the future.
    - pjmlp 7y ago
      Which while true for home micros, was already a proven fact since the early 60's in the big warehouse mainframes, with the Algol derived systems programming languages.

JadeNB 7y ago

> What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s I think the rise of HLLs is an example of a fundamental change. It was still reasonable to be hand-writing assembler for lots of applications in the '60s.

goatlover 7y ago
Sure, but HLLs are decades old and ubiquitous by the 80s. There's no reason to think PLs are going to fundamentally change in 20 years. They could, but it's just speculation at this point.
- edw 7y ago
  The argument over whether C was fast enough to obviate the need to write in assembly raged across the pages of Dr Dobb's Journal and Byte Magazine well into the mid '80s.
  - goatlover 7y ago
    And that supports the argument that PL evolution is slow and unlikely to fundamentally change in 20 years time. Anyway, while people where arguing over C vs Assembly, there were Lisp and Smalltalk machines that didn't become the future.
  - pjmlp 7y ago
    Which while true for home micros, was already a proven fact since the early 60's in the big warehouse mainframes, with the Algol derived systems programming languages.