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Sure, some do, but past adoption is not a guarantee of future adoption. 20 years in the future is a long time. Just look at Flash. Who knows, maybe a Quantum OS

by awb 7y ago

Sure, some do, but past adoption is not a guarantee of future adoption. 20 years in the future is a long time. Just look at Flash. Who knows, maybe a Quantum OS will dominate that doesn't support Python. So yes, if someone will still be using Python in 20 years, I'm sure you're right. But Python just as easily could be relegated to a niche domain while other languages take over a broader range of applications. Especially if someone's able to build a programming translator where you can easily port your code base from one language to another.

goatlover 7y ago
I'm more responding to the idea that programming might become simple and automated, and we can't even predict technological changes a year or two out. You're right that Python could be relegated to a niche language in 20 years. That does happen. What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s, despite the incredible increase in computing power, ubiquity of computers and much better tooling and environments for programming languages. There's no evidence that this is going to change anytime soon. All the popular new languages are similar to the popular older languages. If people don't want to program in JS, they transpile from Typescript. Even web assembly is a means to use a language like Rust on the web. There's no simple, automated PL on the horizon that is going to replace JS, Java, Python, etc. There isn't one for spreadsheets, either, which is a technology from the 80s.
- JadeNB 7y ago
  > What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s I think the rise of HLLs is an example of a fundamental change. It was still reasonable to be hand-writing assembler for lots of applications in the '60s.
  - goatlover 7y ago
    Sure, but HLLs are decades old and ubiquitous by the 80s. There's no reason to think PLs are going to fundamentally change in 20 years. They could, but it's just speculation at this point.
    - edw 7y ago
      The argument over whether C was fast enough to obviate the need to write in assembly raged across the pages of Dr Dobb's Journal and Byte Magazine well into the mid '80s.
      - goatlover 7y ago
        And that supports the argument that PL evolution is slow and unlikely to fundamentally change in 20 years time. Anyway, while people where arguing over C vs Assembly, there were Lisp and Smalltalk machines that didn't become the future.
      - pjmlp 7y ago
        Which while true for home micros, was already a proven fact since the early 60's in the big warehouse mainframes, with the Algol derived systems programming languages.
coldtea 7y ago
>Sure, some do, but past adoption is not a guarantee of future adoption. Not a guarantee but still the best predictor. >20 years in the future is a long time. Just look at Flash. Flash had a lot of things against it. Proprietary (aside from niche implementations nobody really cared about or used), single vendor, not owing its platform (browser vendors owned it), and not really that useful (aside from casual online games its main other use was small animations and intro pages). And even then, it also took the combined effort of 3 browser vendors to kill it, and its public ousting from its mobile platform from the biggest company on Earth...

by awb 7y ago

goatlover 7y ago

I'm more responding to the idea that programming might become simple and automated, and we can't even predict technological changes a year or two out. You're right that Python could be relegated to a niche language in 20 years. That does happen. What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s, despite the incredible increase in computing power, ubiquity of computers and much better tooling and environments for programming languages. There's no evidence that this is going to change anytime soon. All the popular new languages are similar to the popular older languages. If people don't want to program in JS, they transpile from Typescript. Even web assembly is a means to use a language like Rust on the web. There's no simple, automated PL on the horizon that is going to replace JS, Java, Python, etc. There isn't one for spreadsheets, either, which is a technology from the 80s.

JadeNB 7y ago
> What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s I think the rise of HLLs is an example of a fundamental change. It was still reasonable to be hand-writing assembler for lots of applications in the '60s.
- goatlover 7y ago
  Sure, but HLLs are decades old and ubiquitous by the 80s. There's no reason to think PLs are going to fundamentally change in 20 years. They could, but it's just speculation at this point.
  - edw 7y ago
    The argument over whether C was fast enough to obviate the need to write in assembly raged across the pages of Dr Dobb's Journal and Byte Magazine well into the mid '80s.
    - goatlover 7y ago
      And that supports the argument that PL evolution is slow and unlikely to fundamentally change in 20 years time. Anyway, while people where arguing over C vs Assembly, there were Lisp and Smalltalk machines that didn't become the future.
    - pjmlp 7y ago
      Which while true for home micros, was already a proven fact since the early 60's in the big warehouse mainframes, with the Algol derived systems programming languages.

coldtea 7y ago

>Sure, some do, but past adoption is not a guarantee of future adoption. Not a guarantee but still the best predictor. >20 years in the future is a long time. Just look at Flash. Flash had a lot of things against it. Proprietary (aside from niche implementations nobody really cared about or used), single vendor, not owing its platform (browser vendors owned it), and not really that useful (aside from casual online games its main other use was small animations and intro pages). And even then, it also took the combined effort of 3 browser vendors to kill it, and its public ousting from its mobile platform from the biggest company on Earth...