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> Python will still be used 20 years from now So much technology has come and gone since 2000. If innovation continues to accelerate I'd be hesitant to predict

by awb 7y ago

> Python will still be used 20 years from now So much technology has come and gone since 2000. If innovation continues to accelerate I'd be hesitant to predict what 2040 will look like. Programming might become so simple and automated that we won't need StackOverflow to the extent we do today. It's really hard to predict the next year or two let alone the next 20.

earenndil 7y ago
> If innovation continues to accelerate It won't; that is a naive view. Innovation can't keep accelerating forever, and I would be surprised if it even keeps up its current pace; far likelier it's a sigmoid curve - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
- gugagore 7y ago
  I don't know if you're talking about like the heat death of the universe, and so like nothing is "forever", but I don't see signs of programming language innovation slowing down at all.
goatlover 7y ago
Programming languages from 2000 remain, though. C, C++, Java, JS, Python, etc. Even Fortran, Cobol and Lisp remain in use. There’s been attempts since the 80s to popularize visual and and higher level approaches to programming, but the traditional languages still dominate. And the newer ones like Go, Elixir and Julia are like the traditional C, Lisp and Fortrans.
- awb 7y ago
  Sure, some do, but past adoption is not a guarantee of future adoption. 20 years in the future is a long time. Just look at Flash. Who knows, maybe a Quantum OS will dominate that doesn't support Python. So yes, if someone will still be using Python in 20 years, I'm sure you're right. But Python just as easily could be relegated to a niche domain while other languages take over a broader range of applications. Especially if someone's able to build a programming translator where you can easily port your code base from one language to another.
  - goatlover 7y ago
    I'm more responding to the idea that programming might become simple and automated, and we can't even predict technological changes a year or two out. You're right that Python could be relegated to a niche language in 20 years. That does happen. What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s, despite the incredible increase in computing power, ubiquity of computers and much better tooling and environments for programming languages. There's no evidence that this is going to change anytime soon. All the popular new languages are similar to the popular older languages. If people don't want to program in JS, they transpile from Typescript. Even web assembly is a means to use a language like Rust on the web. There's no simple, automated PL on the horizon that is going to replace JS, Java, Python, etc. There isn't one for spreadsheets, either, which is a technology from the 80s.
    - JadeNB 7y ago
      > What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s I think the rise of HLLs is an example of a fundamental change. It was still reasonable to be hand-writing assembler for lots of applications in the '60s.
      - goatlover 7y ago
        Sure, but HLLs are decades old and ubiquitous by the 80s. There's no reason to think PLs are going to fundamentally change in 20 years. They could, but it's just speculation at this point.
        edw 7y ago
        The argument over whether C was fast enough to obviate the need to write in assembly raged across the pages of Dr Dobb's Journal and Byte Magazine well into the mid '80s.
        goatlover 7y ago
        And that supports the argument that PL evolution is slow and unlikely to fundamentally change in 20 years time. Anyway, while people where arguing over C vs Assembly, there were Lisp and Smalltalk machines that didn't become the future.
- elcomet 7y ago
  More than this, C is from the 70s, and C++ is from the 80s. This is 50 years from now for C. So I'd say python is likely to be still here 20 years from now, given how popular it is.
  - cygx 7y ago
    Python will still be around, but how popular it'll be is an open question. For example, Pascal or Perl were huge in their prime, and while they continue to stick around, the torch has been passed on.
    - goatlover 7y ago
      Sure, but if Julia relegates Python to a niche and Rust does the same thing to C, they're still the same kind of approach to programming, and not some high level, mostly automated thing. They don't fundamentally change how people program.
      - hpcjoe 7y ago
        When you write idiomatic Julia ... not C in a Julia syntax, but actually leverage the native power of Julia, yeah, you write code differently.
        goatlover 7y ago
        Same with idiomatic Python or Lisp circa 1960.
coldtea 7y ago
>So much technology has come and gone since 2000. If innovation continues to accelerate I'd be hesitant to predict what 2040 will look like. Not much core technology -- e.g. programming languages and their ecosystems. Frameworks, or specific business cases or tools ('grid computing', 'big data', 'no sql' etc) sure...

by awb 7y ago

earenndil 7y ago

> If innovation continues to accelerate It won't; that is a naive view. Innovation can't keep accelerating forever, and I would be surprised if it even keeps up its current pace; far likelier it's a sigmoid curve - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function

gugagore 7y ago
I don't know if you're talking about like the heat death of the universe, and so like nothing is "forever", but I don't see signs of programming language innovation slowing down at all.

goatlover 7y ago

Programming languages from 2000 remain, though. C, C++, Java, JS, Python, etc. Even Fortran, Cobol and Lisp remain in use. There’s been attempts since the 80s to popularize visual and and higher level approaches to programming, but the traditional languages still dominate. And the newer ones like Go, Elixir and Julia are like the traditional C, Lisp and Fortrans.

awb 7y ago
Sure, some do, but past adoption is not a guarantee of future adoption. 20 years in the future is a long time. Just look at Flash. Who knows, maybe a Quantum OS will dominate that doesn't support Python. So yes, if someone will still be using Python in 20 years, I'm sure you're right. But Python just as easily could be relegated to a niche domain while other languages take over a broader range of applications. Especially if someone's able to build a programming translator where you can easily port your code base from one language to another.
- goatlover 7y ago
  I'm more responding to the idea that programming might become simple and automated, and we can't even predict technological changes a year or two out. You're right that Python could be relegated to a niche language in 20 years. That does happen. What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s, despite the incredible increase in computing power, ubiquity of computers and much better tooling and environments for programming languages. There's no evidence that this is going to change anytime soon. All the popular new languages are similar to the popular older languages. If people don't want to program in JS, they transpile from Typescript. Even web assembly is a means to use a language like Rust on the web. There's no simple, automated PL on the horizon that is going to replace JS, Java, Python, etc. There isn't one for spreadsheets, either, which is a technology from the 80s.
  - JadeNB 7y ago
    > What hasn't happened is a fundamental change to programming languages since the 1960s I think the rise of HLLs is an example of a fundamental change. It was still reasonable to be hand-writing assembler for lots of applications in the '60s.
    - goatlover 7y ago
      Sure, but HLLs are decades old and ubiquitous by the 80s. There's no reason to think PLs are going to fundamentally change in 20 years. They could, but it's just speculation at this point.
      - edw 7y ago
        The argument over whether C was fast enough to obviate the need to write in assembly raged across the pages of Dr Dobb's Journal and Byte Magazine well into the mid '80s.
        goatlover 7y ago
        And that supports the argument that PL evolution is slow and unlikely to fundamentally change in 20 years time. Anyway, while people where arguing over C vs Assembly, there were Lisp and Smalltalk machines that didn't become the future.
elcomet 7y ago
More than this, C is from the 70s, and C++ is from the 80s. This is 50 years from now for C. So I'd say python is likely to be still here 20 years from now, given how popular it is.
- cygx 7y ago
  Python will still be around, but how popular it'll be is an open question. For example, Pascal or Perl were huge in their prime, and while they continue to stick around, the torch has been passed on.
  - goatlover 7y ago
    Sure, but if Julia relegates Python to a niche and Rust does the same thing to C, they're still the same kind of approach to programming, and not some high level, mostly automated thing. They don't fundamentally change how people program.
    - hpcjoe 7y ago
      When you write idiomatic Julia ... not C in a Julia syntax, but actually leverage the native power of Julia, yeah, you write code differently.
      - goatlover 7y ago
        Same with idiomatic Python or Lisp circa 1960.

coldtea 7y ago

>So much technology has come and gone since 2000. If innovation continues to accelerate I'd be hesitant to predict what 2040 will look like. Not much core technology -- e.g. programming languages and their ecosystems. Frameworks, or specific business cases or tools ('grid computing', 'big data', 'no sql' etc) sure...