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N. Taleb wrote a very good note [1] on why conventional risk-benefit considerations don't apply in the case of an unknown contagion like NCov19 - the comparison
by jpdus 7y ago
N. Taleb wrote a very good note [1] on why conventional risk-benefit considerations don't apply in the case of an unknown contagion like NCov19 - the comparison to the seasonal flu is not helpful in these cases (thin-tailed risks vs fat-tailed risks which are an existential threat on a long-enough timeline).
[1] https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_via_Novel_Pathogens_-_Coronavirus_A_Note https://www.academia.edu/41743064/Systemic_Risk_of_Pandemic_...
- gdubs 7y agoReally good read, thanks. Tl;dr, Taleb et al think extraordinary measures to reduce transportation flow can be very effective and that policy makers shouldn’t shy away from employing them when facing a viral outbreak of unknown tenacity.