4 ms·

The second derivative is the acceleration. If it's negative it can still be getting worse (positive first derivative), but it's slowing down. The second deriva

by yarg 7y ago

The second derivative is the acceleration. If it's negative it can still be getting worse (positive first derivative), but it's slowing down. The second derivative is the rate at which the rate of change is changing.

blackrock 7y ago
Sounds about right. This will get worse before it gets better. This is an interesting chart to new map the new daily infection rate. https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1226659915160117248 https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1226659915160117248 The daily count of new cases is going down. China’s containment effort might be successful. However, this may not account for everything. * They have limited daily testing kits. Especially in the early days of this crisis. * There may be people who had died, but they didn’t get tested, so they won’t be counted in this statistic. The moral dilemma is: Do you burn a precious test kit on a dead corpse to verify that they had the virus, or do you save it for someone still living? * The city and the province’s medical system is under severe strain, and there are not enough supplies to go around. They may not even be able to account for everything or everyone, because their medical system is suffering from a massive denial of service attack right now. * They may have ramped up test kit production this weekend to 10k/day, so this may skew the numbers higher, as they are able to test more people. * There are reports that the testing is not fully accurate, if you’re in the early stage, where the virus hasn’t generated enough markers to be detected yet. So, this is a false negative, where you are actually infected, but the test says that you are not. This might be why they will only clear you, if you get two negative tests in a row.
- ImaCake 7y ago
  Yes, but likely at a predictable and slowing rate. Some graphs I've seen look something like a bell curve.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  if a virus would wipe out say 50% or 75% of humanity, it would be terrible for us but wouldn't be that bad for mother nature. It may provide a couple of decades (if not centuries) in which nature is able to recover from us. I think thanks to global warming, there will be many more diseases coming our way. Things that our immune system has never previously had to fight against and for which there is no cure.
  - jokowueu 7y ago
    Might be a alit more if some of our nuclear reactors arnt shut down properly
    - PeterisP 7y ago
      From the perspective of mother nature, Chernobyl is just a wildlife preserve already now; if our reactors explode, that would be bad for us but no big deal for ecosystems after some reasonable timeframe e.g. 10000 years - long term for us, but short term for evolution. From the perspective of Earth, a few millenia of active humanity is just a tiny spike that's inducing lots of rapid change, but very short.
      - jokowueu 7y ago
        Chernobyl was controlled if the firefighters didn't sacrarice their lives most of Europe would have been irradiated and that was just caesium . Uranium would have been a nightmare
  - blackrock 7y ago
    That’s a pretty grim outlook there. Humanity will survive this outbreak. China will survive it too. But, you and I, individually, may not. It will depend on how healthy you are, or how strong your immune system is. If you want to identify global warming as the culprit, then one of the biggest polluters are civilian airplanes, and the US Military. There is no technology now, or on the near horizon, that will replace this. And those that fly on civilian planes the most, are those who can afford the tickets, which are normally the First World western countries. Would you like to tell them that they can no longer take their distant tropical vacations anymore? Maybe that’s what we need to do to save humanity?
- thinkingemote 7y ago
  I think your comment hits the nail on the head. Statistics about viruses are based on tests and test kits are limited, personnel to test are limited, lab capacity is limited. The results we see may be heavily influenced by testing capacity.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Like in any other epidemic as well. So that in itself is nothing special or something to worry about.

by yarg 7y ago

blackrock 7y ago

Sounds about right. This will get worse before it gets better. This is an interesting chart to new map the new daily infection rate. https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1226659915160117248 https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1226659915160117248 The daily count of new cases is going down. China’s containment effort might be successful. However, this may not account for everything. * They have limited daily testing kits. Especially in the early days of this crisis. * There may be people who had died, but they didn’t get tested, so they won’t be counted in this statistic. The moral dilemma is: Do you burn a precious test kit on a dead corpse to verify that they had the virus, or do you save it for someone still living? * The city and the province’s medical system is under severe strain, and there are not enough supplies to go around. They may not even be able to account for everything or everyone, because their medical system is suffering from a massive denial of service attack right now. * They may have ramped up test kit production this weekend to 10k/day, so this may skew the numbers higher, as they are able to test more people. * There are reports that the testing is not fully accurate, if you’re in the early stage, where the virus hasn’t generated enough markers to be detected yet. So, this is a false negative, where you are actually infected, but the test says that you are not. This might be why they will only clear you, if you get two negative tests in a row.

ImaCake 7y ago
Yes, but likely at a predictable and slowing rate. Some graphs I've seen look something like a bell curve.
DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
if a virus would wipe out say 50% or 75% of humanity, it would be terrible for us but wouldn't be that bad for mother nature. It may provide a couple of decades (if not centuries) in which nature is able to recover from us. I think thanks to global warming, there will be many more diseases coming our way. Things that our immune system has never previously had to fight against and for which there is no cure.
- jokowueu 7y ago
  Might be a alit more if some of our nuclear reactors arnt shut down properly
  - PeterisP 7y ago
    From the perspective of mother nature, Chernobyl is just a wildlife preserve already now; if our reactors explode, that would be bad for us but no big deal for ecosystems after some reasonable timeframe e.g. 10000 years - long term for us, but short term for evolution. From the perspective of Earth, a few millenia of active humanity is just a tiny spike that's inducing lots of rapid change, but very short.
    - jokowueu 7y ago
      Chernobyl was controlled if the firefighters didn't sacrarice their lives most of Europe would have been irradiated and that was just caesium . Uranium would have been a nightmare
- blackrock 7y ago
  That’s a pretty grim outlook there. Humanity will survive this outbreak. China will survive it too. But, you and I, individually, may not. It will depend on how healthy you are, or how strong your immune system is. If you want to identify global warming as the culprit, then one of the biggest polluters are civilian airplanes, and the US Military. There is no technology now, or on the near horizon, that will replace this. And those that fly on civilian planes the most, are those who can afford the tickets, which are normally the First World western countries. Would you like to tell them that they can no longer take their distant tropical vacations anymore? Maybe that’s what we need to do to save humanity?
thinkingemote 7y ago
I think your comment hits the nail on the head. Statistics about viruses are based on tests and test kits are limited, personnel to test are limited, lab capacity is limited. The results we see may be heavily influenced by testing capacity.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Like in any other epidemic as well. So that in itself is nothing special or something to worry about.