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From the very first paragraph, > For example, for an event with two possible outcomes, where each outcome is likely to happen 50% of the time, the probability
by titzer 7y ago
From the very first paragraph,
> For example, for an event with two possible outcomes, where each outcome is likely to happen 50% of the time, the probability of the same outcome occurring six times in a row is less than 3 in 1000
This is wrong. The probability of, e.g. getting heads 6 times in a row is 1/2^6 which is 1/64. The probability of getting 6 heads in a row or six tails in a row is 1/2^5, which is 1/32.
- jka 7y agoStrange. The document claims it's paraphrasing two sources, one of which is linked[0] in the document itself. The linked source does contain the diagram your quote is associated with, but not the (agreed, questionable) commentary about probabilities. [0] - http://www.knowledge.scot.nhs.uk/media/CLT/ResourceUploads/1006891/Good_Practice_Guide_Data_Management_run_chart_rules.pdf http://www.knowledge.scot.nhs.uk/media/CLT/ResourceUploads/1...
- rolandog 7y agoYou're right. The mentioned likelihood would be for 8.4 times in a row: 3:1000 → 1:333⅓ P = 1 / (1 + 333⅓) n = |log(1/334⅓)| n ≈ 8.3851