People are modeling the disease and thinking it will peak in a few weeks. I wonder how accurate such a model is if you have no idea how many people actually hav

People are modeling the disease and thinking it will peak in a few weeks. I wonder how accurate such a model is if you have no idea how many people actually have the disease but have not been counted. The number of clusters of people with the virus are expanding (like the ski chalet in France). Could they create new expansions we aren't able to know yet?