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From what I have seen, the daily death toll is doubling every 5 days or so. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/ https://www.world

From what I have seen, the daily death toll is doubling every 5 days or so. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... I don’t know how long that can continue but at that rate it won’t be more than a couple of months before thousands are dying per day... Edit: since it takes 2 to 3 weeks to die from it, we really should be comparing the deaths now to the cases two weeks ago, which gives a much much higher mortality rate than is currently reported — maybe as high as 20% Based on how fast it spread, I definitely expect there to be ~300 people dying per day by next week, so you’re taking a SARS equivalent every 2 or 3 days.

scoot 7y ago
According to the site you linked to, the daily deaths growth factor is trending downwards.
- dpcan 7y ago
  I'd argue that there is absolutely no "trend" whatsoever. It's just that some people are dying from it, and that's what happens to some people when they get a virus.
chmod775 7y ago
> Based on how fast it spread, I definitely expect there to be ~300 people dying per day by next week, so you’re taking a SARS equivalent every 2 or 3 days. To put that into perspective: About 700 people die in traffic accidents in China every single day. So that'd be a point where it would (slowly) become a factor in mortality rates if it wasn't checked within 2020.
- eru 7y ago
  Wikipedia says about a few hundred thousand people globally die in a typical flu season that barely gets a mention in the news. That's perhaps the more topical comparison? Oh, and that doesn't include the people who die of the common cold--which is caused by a variety of viruses, the only common thing about them being our immune system's similar reaction. Rhinovirus are the most common, but also coronavirus.
  - inferiorhuman 7y ago
    Wikipedia says about a few hundred thousand people globally die in a typical flu season that barely gets a mention in the news. That's perhaps the more topical comparison? Significantly more people catch a flu virus than this coronavirus. So far this flu season the CDC is reporting a CFR of about 0.5% in the US (19 million cases, 10,000 deaths). If the Wuhan coronavirus were equally fatal that would equate to roughly 190 deaths worldwide so far. If the flu were as lethal as the conservative estimates for the Wuhan coronavirus we'd have on the order of 400,000 deaths in the United States alone. That's why people are talking about this coronavirus and largely blasé about the flu. Additionally the flu typically only kills older or immunocompromised folks. When the flu starts killing healthy adults like H1N1 did in 2009 that tends to get a lot more attention.
    - dingaling 7y ago
      > That's why people are talking about this coronavirus and largely blasé about the flu I disagree. People are talking about coronavirus because the media is talking about it, because it makes great headlines out of context. In January 2018, influenza and pneumonia in the USA had a CFR of 10.8%. That's horrific, but didn't earn media attention. Over 500,000 people die globally from influenza-related respiratory problems every year. Break out of the 24/7 news cycle.
      - inferiorhuman 7y ago
        Over 500,000 people die globally from influenza-related respiratory problems every year. And how many people need to be infected to achieve that result? More people than the Wuhan coronavirus would need. Try an order of magnitude more. That's why the flu typically doesn't make the news and this coronavirus does. I don't know where you are, but in California the 2017-18 flu season was indeed heavily covered.
    - tigershark 7y ago
      You are off by an order of magnitude I think. 10000 deaths over 19000000 cases is a mortality of 0.05%
- empath75 7y ago
  The rate of traffic accident deaths isn’t doubling every week. A week after it’s 300 a day, it’ll be 600 a day, then 1200. In 2-3 months, you’re talking 10,000 a day.

scoot 7y ago

According to the site you linked to, the daily deaths growth factor is trending downwards.

dpcan 7y ago
I'd argue that there is absolutely no "trend" whatsoever. It's just that some people are dying from it, and that's what happens to some people when they get a virus.

chmod775 7y ago

> Based on how fast it spread, I definitely expect there to be ~300 people dying per day by next week, so you’re taking a SARS equivalent every 2 or 3 days. To put that into perspective: About 700 people die in traffic accidents in China every single day. So that'd be a point where it would (slowly) become a factor in mortality rates if it wasn't checked within 2020.

eru 7y ago
Wikipedia says about a few hundred thousand people globally die in a typical flu season that barely gets a mention in the news. That's perhaps the more topical comparison? Oh, and that doesn't include the people who die of the common cold--which is caused by a variety of viruses, the only common thing about them being our immune system's similar reaction. Rhinovirus are the most common, but also coronavirus.
- inferiorhuman 7y ago
  Wikipedia says about a few hundred thousand people globally die in a typical flu season that barely gets a mention in the news. That's perhaps the more topical comparison? Significantly more people catch a flu virus than this coronavirus. So far this flu season the CDC is reporting a CFR of about 0.5% in the US (19 million cases, 10,000 deaths). If the Wuhan coronavirus were equally fatal that would equate to roughly 190 deaths worldwide so far. If the flu were as lethal as the conservative estimates for the Wuhan coronavirus we'd have on the order of 400,000 deaths in the United States alone. That's why people are talking about this coronavirus and largely blasé about the flu. Additionally the flu typically only kills older or immunocompromised folks. When the flu starts killing healthy adults like H1N1 did in 2009 that tends to get a lot more attention.
  - dingaling 7y ago
    > That's why people are talking about this coronavirus and largely blasé about the flu I disagree. People are talking about coronavirus because the media is talking about it, because it makes great headlines out of context. In January 2018, influenza and pneumonia in the USA had a CFR of 10.8%. That's horrific, but didn't earn media attention. Over 500,000 people die globally from influenza-related respiratory problems every year. Break out of the 24/7 news cycle.
    - inferiorhuman 7y ago
      Over 500,000 people die globally from influenza-related respiratory problems every year. And how many people need to be infected to achieve that result? More people than the Wuhan coronavirus would need. Try an order of magnitude more. That's why the flu typically doesn't make the news and this coronavirus does. I don't know where you are, but in California the 2017-18 flu season was indeed heavily covered.
  - tigershark 7y ago
    You are off by an order of magnitude I think. 10000 deaths over 19000000 cases is a mortality of 0.05%
empath75 7y ago
The rate of traffic accident deaths isn’t doubling every week. A week after it’s 300 a day, it’ll be 600 a day, then 1200. In 2-3 months, you’re talking 10,000 a day.