3 ms·

Very good point. When the 2009 H1N1 flu virus hit, it infected 11% to 21% of the world's population. The mortality rate was low, at just 0.02%, but because of

Very good point. When the 2009 H1N1 flu virus hit, it infected 11% to 21% of the world's population. The mortality rate was low, at just 0.02%, but because of the number of people it infected it resulted in 284,000 deaths. When a novel disease hits the population for the first time, it often spreads faster and wider than diseases for which we've developed some immunity. The coronavirus mortality rate so far is alarmingly high. It is highly uncertain and very preliminary, but it could go in either direction. Early estimates of SARS were that it had a fatality rate of <3%. It was eventually revised upward to 9.6%.

lamontcg 7y ago
It looks a lot more like viral pneumonia than 2009 H1N1. Healthy younger adults largely don't get infected or don't suffer very severe symptoms. In one study in the lancet no patients under 40 were admitted to the ICU. The MuLBSTA score of a patient for predicting fatality from viral pneumonia (which considers comorbidities like diabetes, heart disease, smoking, etc) is predictive of fatal outcomes with nCoV-2019. Everyone on the internet doing the math on this thing loves to assume it will naturally be as broadly infectious as influenza and will ultimately infect 1/3 of the planet (with the usually quoted 2% fatality rate). More likely the number of infections will be lower than that by an order of magnitude at least (even though it will still be a global pandemic). If you look at the quarantined cruise ship only 63 out of 3700 people have been confirmed as cases. At 1.7% (and of course still growing) that is still very far off from 33%. It is still troubling because if you assume the impact is like viral pneumonia then the impact of effectively doubling the number of cases of that worldwide will stress our health care systems, and it will increase mortality in vulnerable populations (very young and older people with comorbidities). I'm a bit worried about my mom and dad who are pushing 80 now, I'm not much worried about myself (48 with no other issues). Healthy 25 year olds probably won't catch this at all, and if they do they'll just get a bad cold.
- pbourke 7y ago
  > If you look at the quarantined cruise ship only 63 out of 3700 people have been confirmed as cases. I believe they only tested ~300 people.
- kgwgk 7y ago
  Are you refering to this paper: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... ? "We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics, treatment, and clinical outcomes of 41 laboratory-confirmed cases infected with 2019-nCoV. The median age of patients was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0), and 13 (32%) patients had underlying disease. All patients had pneumonia. A third of patients were admitted to intensive care units, and six died." Looking at Fig 1 one-third of patients in the 25-49 age group needed intensive care. Maybe the were all above 40, but anyway I don't think that looks like the usual influenza-related pneumonia. https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/f86df21c-bbb2-4922-975a-14a067deb0e9/gr1.jpg https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/f86df...

lamontcg 7y ago

It looks a lot more like viral pneumonia than 2009 H1N1. Healthy younger adults largely don't get infected or don't suffer very severe symptoms. In one study in the lancet no patients under 40 were admitted to the ICU. The MuLBSTA score of a patient for predicting fatality from viral pneumonia (which considers comorbidities like diabetes, heart disease, smoking, etc) is predictive of fatal outcomes with nCoV-2019. Everyone on the internet doing the math on this thing loves to assume it will naturally be as broadly infectious as influenza and will ultimately infect 1/3 of the planet (with the usually quoted 2% fatality rate). More likely the number of infections will be lower than that by an order of magnitude at least (even though it will still be a global pandemic). If you look at the quarantined cruise ship only 63 out of 3700 people have been confirmed as cases. At 1.7% (and of course still growing) that is still very far off from 33%. It is still troubling because if you assume the impact is like viral pneumonia then the impact of effectively doubling the number of cases of that worldwide will stress our health care systems, and it will increase mortality in vulnerable populations (very young and older people with comorbidities). I'm a bit worried about my mom and dad who are pushing 80 now, I'm not much worried about myself (48 with no other issues). Healthy 25 year olds probably won't catch this at all, and if they do they'll just get a bad cold.

pbourke 7y ago
> If you look at the quarantined cruise ship only 63 out of 3700 people have been confirmed as cases. I believe they only tested ~300 people.
kgwgk 7y ago
Are you refering to this paper: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... ? "We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics, treatment, and clinical outcomes of 41 laboratory-confirmed cases infected with 2019-nCoV. The median age of patients was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0), and 13 (32%) patients had underlying disease. All patients had pneumonia. A third of patients were admitted to intensive care units, and six died." Looking at Fig 1 one-third of patients in the 25-49 age group needed intensive care. Maybe the were all above 40, but anyway I don't think that looks like the usual influenza-related pneumonia. https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/f86df21c-bbb2-4922-975a-14a067deb0e9/gr1.jpg https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/f86df...