4 ms·
From here[0] it seems like there is an additional mechanism by which people can be at risk: >Peng: Based on my observations, a third of patients exhibited infl
by yomly 7y ago
From here[0] it seems like there is an additional mechanism by which people can be at risk:
>Peng: Based on my observations, a third of patients exhibited inflammation in their whole body. It was not necessarily limited to young adults. The mechanism of a cytokine storm is about whole-body inflammation, which leads to a failure of multiple organs and quickly evolves into the terminal stage. In some fast-progressing cases, it took two to three days to progress from whole-body inflammation to the life-threatening stage.
It is at least noteworthy that Dr Li Wenliang died in his late 30s...
Also the mortality rate seems to be very hard to report on due to compounding issues:
1. Chinese death certificates not recording compounding illnesses as cause of death - making attribution hard.
2. There is a two-three week lag on infected to death but a ~4 day lag on infected detection thus a naive mortality calculation of:
mortality = deaths / infected
Is not going to cut it and is misleading at best.
3. There is a mixture of factors making reporting accurately hard: Wuhan health services are at max capacity and everything from detection to care is strained. There is also some mixture of political factors which may mean that numbers coming out of China could be tailored towards some kind of narrative.
I agreed there's a lot of FUD which is probably unnecessary, especially outside of Asia. I think within Asia it is a bit more founded given that population density is so high (just think about things like aircon usage in places like Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand) AND we've just come out of Chinese New Year which is the largest annual human migration event.
My current read on the situation is that everyone else's fear and overreaction will keep me safe at the very least. I also imagine that there will be a degree of y2k type ignorance revolving around the issue once the dust settles: people on the ground who worked on it will say it was a big fucking deal and crisis was averted through a lot of hard work and coordination. People who were unaffected by it will think it was all a bunch of BS and there was nothing to ever have worried about.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22263022 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22263022