3 ms·

I've read this several times. Could someone shed some light on this? Are the reported numbers impossible because they are too close to the curve? Or because the

I've read this several times. Could someone shed some light on this? Are the reported numbers impossible because they are too close to the curve? Or because the numbers should follow another curve? Could there be a hidden mechanism in the speed at which the virus is tested for that could explain the quadratic?

wolco 7y ago
Of course. If you say: - The only cases that we will confirm have a positive trst Then if you only test 3000 today and 4000 tomorrow that would define the curve not the real spread.
hedora 7y ago
The fit is too good, and it has predicted subsequent stats with implausible accuracy so far.
mtreis86 7y ago
Something like a hospital opening, and suddenly having a pile of patients to test, should result in a small spike in that graph. A quarantine being enacted in a city should cause a change in angle of the curve.
- yorwba 7y ago
  The list of spikes is available, e.g. from Tencent News: https://xw.qq.com/act/qgfeiyan https://xw.qq.com/act/qgfeiyan Most recent update right now: 上海新增5例新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎确诊病例 Shanghai adds 5 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection 2020年2月8日0—12时，上海市排除新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疑似病例11例；新增治愈出院11例；新增确诊病例5例，其中2例为外地来沪人员，3例为本市常住人口。 On 2020-02-08 from 0 to 12, Shanghai handled 11 suspected cases of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection, added 11 cases released from hospital after treatment, added 5 confirmed cases, 2 of which are not originally from Shanghai and 3 are residents. 截至2月8日12时，上海市已累计排除疑似病例877例，发现确诊病例286例。 Until 02-08 at 12 o'clock, Shanghai has already handled a total of 877 suspected cases and discovered 286 confirmed cases. 健康上海12320 Healthy Shanghai 12320 Lots of small spikes can still add up to a smooth curve overall.

wolco 7y ago

Of course. If you say: - The only cases that we will confirm have a positive trst Then if you only test 3000 today and 4000 tomorrow that would define the curve not the real spread.

hedora 7y ago

The fit is too good, and it has predicted subsequent stats with implausible accuracy so far.

mtreis86 7y ago

Something like a hospital opening, and suddenly having a pile of patients to test, should result in a small spike in that graph. A quarantine being enacted in a city should cause a change in angle of the curve.

yorwba 7y ago
The list of spikes is available, e.g. from Tencent News: https://xw.qq.com/act/qgfeiyan https://xw.qq.com/act/qgfeiyan Most recent update right now: 上海新增5例新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎确诊病例 Shanghai adds 5 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection 2020年2月8日0—12时，上海市排除新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疑似病例11例；新增治愈出院11例；新增确诊病例5例，其中2例为外地来沪人员，3例为本市常住人口。 On 2020-02-08 from 0 to 12, Shanghai handled 11 suspected cases of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection, added 11 cases released from hospital after treatment, added 5 confirmed cases, 2 of which are not originally from Shanghai and 3 are residents. 截至2月8日12时，上海市已累计排除疑似病例877例，发现确诊病例286例。 Until 02-08 at 12 o'clock, Shanghai has already handled a total of 877 suspected cases and discovered 286 confirmed cases. 健康上海12320 Healthy Shanghai 12320 Lots of small spikes can still add up to a smooth curve overall.