6 ms·

Personally, I'm assuming this new virus has already gone global, with the scale of the outbreak in most major metropolitan areas a few weeks behind Wuhan. For

by cs702 7y ago

Personally, I'm assuming this new virus has already gone global, with the scale of the outbreak in most major metropolitan areas a few weeks behind Wuhan. For practical purposes, I'm already lumping this new virus in my mind with the "seasonal flu," variants of which travel around the globe every year, requiring annual shots. It seems that most people who get infected have only mild symptoms. Consider: Many major cities in China already have infected populations in the hundreds or thousands, and growing: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... -- these are official, confirmed figures. See also https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930260-9 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820... for maximum-likelihood estimates of the size of the outbreak as of month-end.

Cantbekhan 7y ago
Personally I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. What I'm afraid of is the emotional population reaction and the practical impact on daily services fueled by FUD and sensationalist media coverage. Schools closing unnecessarily forcing many working people to stay home to babysit their kids. Teachers/Drivers/Cashiers going on strike to avoid risks while there is a now globally confirmed shortage of face masks (which might or might not be very useful anyway but it will keep people working if they feel it helps). It's virtually impossible to find a useless face mask where I am in the EU (at a normal non 10x inflated price from opportunistic vendors) and even less possible to find a useful one (N95/FFP2/FFP3 rating). Interesting times for sure.
- cs702 7y ago
  > I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. Agree. It seems to be most like another global strand of flu.
  - xapata 7y ago
    And the flu kills 10s of thousands annually in the US, despite our widespread vaccination system.
  - platz 7y ago
    Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu?
    - nelblu 7y ago
      > Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu? This was posted earlier on HN Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
- James_Henry 7y ago
  From what I've read, the virus can be a pretty nasty and long one even for those that recover from it. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
- mantap 7y ago
  The mortality rate is unknown. The best estimate is on the order of 1%, but it could be a factor of 10 either way. The mortality rate will be different depending on the health system, since a significant number of people with this virus require either supplementary oxygen or more seriously ICU care. If this were to become an epidemic in India for example, a higher mortality rate would be expected. In Africa it could be severely bad due to the large numbers of people with AIDS and the tendency of this virus to suppress the immune system.
  - Cantbekhan 7y ago
    Also Sub Saharan Africa only has 2 labs (South Africa and Senegal) capable of technically confirming cases. Which might be a reason there aren't any confirmed cases on the continent.
    - krn 7y ago
      > Which might be a reason there aren't any confirmed cases on the continent. There is not a single confirmed case of coronavirus in the entire Central and Eastern Europe, yet[1]. Most likely because there are almost no direct flights from Asia to this region, since it lacks major international metropolitan areas and global tourist attractions. [1] https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map.svg https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map.svg
      - mantap 7y ago
        There are strong links between sub-saharan Africa and China as China has been heavily investing there and there are many Chinese people there. So we would definitely expect to see some cases there by now.
      - biztos 7y ago
        Hungary has a pretty big Chinese community mostly in Budapest, plus plenty of Chinese tourists, and I would assume there was a lot travel around the New Year. If we are guessing about why (and whether) there is no Coronavirus in CE Europe, “no Chinese” is probably not a good guess.
- platz 7y ago
  The current outbreak is expanding exponentially, with a frequency of approximately 20% severe infections requiring advanced respiratory supportive care. Mortality is at least 3%, and probably higher given the time lag between reported infections and deaths. Analysis of Wuhan Coronavirus Deja Vu: Conclusions http://virological.org/uploads/short-url/z0cOhZzme3C6HtlcOcE61uMwJmU.pdf http://virological.org/uploads/short-url/z0cOhZzme3C6HtlcOcE...
- sn56 7y ago
  Well this is the typical French reaction to a slightly hot day. For sure.
  - petre 7y ago
    It's the appropriate reaction in this case however.
hef19898 7y ago
Why is it that everybody is using sources other than the official reports? I mean it can't be that difficult to just go to who.int, right? Maybe the best HN could do, is to help the WHO to get their Corona Virus content right on top of the Google search results. Also something Google could do.
- cs702 7y ago
  The figures in that map at Johns Hopkins are official, confirmed figures. Did you actually look at the map?
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Unless number increase by a factor 10 since February 7th official, confirmed cases in China are 31,211. Source: WHO situation report from Feb. 7th. EDIT: Counter point to the infected population in the hundreds of thousands you made in the parent. EDIT 2: Misread 100s or 1000s for hundreds of thousands. So yeah, official numbers.
    - yread 7y ago
      GP said hundreds OR thousands
      - hef19898 7y ago
        Damn, thanks for pointing it out! I thus stand corrected!
        cs702 7y ago
        FWIW, I just re-read what I wrote, and noticed how easy it is to misread misread "hundreds or thousands" as "hundreds of thousands." Next time I will use "to" instead.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Don't worry, luckily someone else called me out on it! Funny what a single letter can change right?
ineedasername 7y ago
It may in time reach the level of background noise of the flu, but we're years away, decades away from that. The human body has had a few generations to build up baseline immunity to the flu, and we're at minimum a year or so away from a vaccine, likely 3 or 4 before it can reach the industrial scale and distribution infrastructure of the flu vaccine. Even that flu virus, well established, had some minor snafu a few years back and it took months to get back up to speed. In the meantime, the death rate seems more than an order of magnitude higher, and is especially lethal in the > 70 population. So, if this becomes an insurmountable pandemic, you're right that it may eventually reach a flu-like equilibrium and treatability, but we're talking deaths in the millions until then, unless it can be brought under control before that happens.
JauntTrooper 7y ago
The mortality rate could be an order of magnitude higher than the flu. The flu in the US kills less than 0.1% of infected. 12,000 - 80,000 people die every year, just in the US. (where nearly half the population gets a flu vaccine every year and there is health infrastructure to treat the worst cases). The new coronavirus' mortality rate is very unknown, but if it's anywhere close to the 2% number, and it spreads in a similar way to the flu, it could easily cause the deaths of millions of people.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
agumonkey 7y ago
tbh epidemiologist said non asian countries would lag 7-14 days after China, and so far the yellow curve is still flatter than I thought it'd be.
- pbourke 7y ago
  The New Year holiday in China clearly accelerated the spread of the disease there, so I don’t see how you could extrapolate from the situation there to other countries.
  - agumonkey 7y ago
    well all for the better

by cs702 7y ago

Cantbekhan 7y ago

Personally I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. What I'm afraid of is the emotional population reaction and the practical impact on daily services fueled by FUD and sensationalist media coverage. Schools closing unnecessarily forcing many working people to stay home to babysit their kids. Teachers/Drivers/Cashiers going on strike to avoid risks while there is a now globally confirmed shortage of face masks (which might or might not be very useful anyway but it will keep people working if they feel it helps). It's virtually impossible to find a useless face mask where I am in the EU (at a normal non 10x inflated price from opportunistic vendors) and even less possible to find a useful one (N95/FFP2/FFP3 rating). Interesting times for sure.

cs702 7y ago
> I'm not afraid of the sanitary aspect of this virus. I don't think the mortality is extremely alarming per se. Agree. It seems to be most like another global strand of flu.
- xapata 7y ago
  And the flu kills 10s of thousands annually in the US, despite our widespread vaccination system.
- platz 7y ago
  Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu?
  - nelblu 7y ago
    > Do doctors typically suit up in full biohazard gear when confronting flu? This was posted earlier on HN Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU - https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
James_Henry 7y ago
From what I've read, the virus can be a pretty nasty and long one even for those that recover from it. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebo...
mantap 7y ago
The mortality rate is unknown. The best estimate is on the order of 1%, but it could be a factor of 10 either way. The mortality rate will be different depending on the health system, since a significant number of people with this virus require either supplementary oxygen or more seriously ICU care. If this were to become an epidemic in India for example, a higher mortality rate would be expected. In Africa it could be severely bad due to the large numbers of people with AIDS and the tendency of this virus to suppress the immune system.
- Cantbekhan 7y ago
  Also Sub Saharan Africa only has 2 labs (South Africa and Senegal) capable of technically confirming cases. Which might be a reason there aren't any confirmed cases on the continent.
  - krn 7y ago
    > Which might be a reason there aren't any confirmed cases on the continent. There is not a single confirmed case of coronavirus in the entire Central and Eastern Europe, yet[1]. Most likely because there are almost no direct flights from Asia to this region, since it lacks major international metropolitan areas and global tourist attractions. [1] https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map.svg https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map.svg
    - mantap 7y ago
      There are strong links between sub-saharan Africa and China as China has been heavily investing there and there are many Chinese people there. So we would definitely expect to see some cases there by now.
    - biztos 7y ago
      Hungary has a pretty big Chinese community mostly in Budapest, plus plenty of Chinese tourists, and I would assume there was a lot travel around the New Year. If we are guessing about why (and whether) there is no Coronavirus in CE Europe, “no Chinese” is probably not a good guess.
platz 7y ago
The current outbreak is expanding exponentially, with a frequency of approximately 20% severe infections requiring advanced respiratory supportive care. Mortality is at least 3%, and probably higher given the time lag between reported infections and deaths. Analysis of Wuhan Coronavirus Deja Vu: Conclusions http://virological.org/uploads/short-url/z0cOhZzme3C6HtlcOcE61uMwJmU.pdf http://virological.org/uploads/short-url/z0cOhZzme3C6HtlcOcE...
sn56 7y ago
Well this is the typical French reaction to a slightly hot day. For sure.
- petre 7y ago
  It's the appropriate reaction in this case however.

hef19898 7y ago

Why is it that everybody is using sources other than the official reports? I mean it can't be that difficult to just go to who.int, right? Maybe the best HN could do, is to help the WHO to get their Corona Virus content right on top of the Google search results. Also something Google could do.

cs702 7y ago
The figures in that map at Johns Hopkins are official, confirmed figures. Did you actually look at the map?
- hef19898 7y ago
  Unless number increase by a factor 10 since February 7th official, confirmed cases in China are 31,211. Source: WHO situation report from Feb. 7th. EDIT: Counter point to the infected population in the hundreds of thousands you made in the parent. EDIT 2: Misread 100s or 1000s for hundreds of thousands. So yeah, official numbers.
  - yread 7y ago
    GP said hundreds OR thousands
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Damn, thanks for pointing it out! I thus stand corrected!
      - cs702 7y ago
        FWIW, I just re-read what I wrote, and noticed how easy it is to misread misread "hundreds or thousands" as "hundreds of thousands." Next time I will use "to" instead.
- hef19898 7y ago
  Don't worry, luckily someone else called me out on it! Funny what a single letter can change right?

ineedasername 7y ago

It may in time reach the level of background noise of the flu, but we're years away, decades away from that. The human body has had a few generations to build up baseline immunity to the flu, and we're at minimum a year or so away from a vaccine, likely 3 or 4 before it can reach the industrial scale and distribution infrastructure of the flu vaccine. Even that flu virus, well established, had some minor snafu a few years back and it took months to get back up to speed. In the meantime, the death rate seems more than an order of magnitude higher, and is especially lethal in the > 70 population. So, if this becomes an insurmountable pandemic, you're right that it may eventually reach a flu-like equilibrium and treatability, but we're talking deaths in the millions until then, unless it can be brought under control before that happens.

JauntTrooper 7y ago

The mortality rate could be an order of magnitude higher than the flu. The flu in the US kills less than 0.1% of infected. 12,000 - 80,000 people die every year, just in the US. (where nearly half the population gets a flu vaccine every year and there is health infrastructure to treat the worst cases). The new coronavirus' mortality rate is very unknown, but if it's anywhere close to the 2% number, and it spreads in a similar way to the flu, it could easily cause the deaths of millions of people.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

agumonkey 7y ago

tbh epidemiologist said non asian countries would lag 7-14 days after China, and so far the yellow curve is still flatter than I thought it'd be.

pbourke 7y ago
The New Year holiday in China clearly accelerated the spread of the disease there, so I don’t see how you could extrapolate from the situation there to other countries.
- agumonkey 7y ago
  well all for the better