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I'm equally perplexed as to why people always seem to think a big downturn is right around the corner. Maybe there are always enough warning signs that someone

I'm equally perplexed as to why people always seem to think a big downturn is right around the corner. Maybe there are always enough warning signs that someone with a sufficient penchant for confirmation bias will latch on to. Regardless, nobody can tell the future - there are simply too many unknowns to consider. We will certainly have more good times and bad times. As to when they come, predict all you want, but historically analyst predictions have an awful track record (historically, expert predictions are wrong most of the time https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/ https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/ ). The occasional person who guessed right previously (there will always be some) are then raised up as oracles.

iso1631 7y ago
> I'm equally perplexed as to why people always seem to think a big downturn is right around the corner. There will be a downturn, sooner or later. Predict it every year and eventually you go down as the person who predicted the downturn.
axegon_ 7y ago
My point exactly. A broken watch is right twice a day. Let's assume that we are all in a simulation. A statement such as "the entity that created the simulation will pull the plug in what we perceive as two minutes". Well yeah, sure... Is it a valid statement? Yes. Is it accurate? Hell if I know.
jotakami 7y ago
In a nutshell, Austrian economics. Central banks have made money ridiculously cheap for over a decade, and this leads to malinvestment: investors pour this cheap money into projects that probably yield negative real returns, because there is way more money floating around than viable projects to spend it on. Spend capital on negative-yielding projects for long enough and you erode the productive capacity of the economy until a crisis hits. That’s the story; hard to say how well it describes reality but there’s surely a modicum of truth in there at least.
ghastmaster 7y ago
Time and date may not be predictable, but the simple math behind the modern monetary system of central banks is quite clear. Print or die. Inflation or recession. When the F.R.B. of the USA stops printing the market crashes. You can watch it happen if you are watching what they do. Since they are now wholly locked in a corner they only have the two options. Inflation or depression. Soon they will purchase stocks outright. We may not actually see a 2008 type scenario, but I'm not going to bet my house, car, and business on it. If we all saved and did not borrow, they could not print.
- citrablue 7y ago
  If time and date are unpredictable, what's the use? Suppose you switch to conservative investments now -- say, bonds. You're going to be hit less hard by the recession, but you also will have missed out on gains. So, unless you believe you can time the market, it doesn't appear like there is much to do except to make sure you have a rainy day fund. All my other money goes into the system.
  - ghastmaster 7y ago
    Your sentiments contribute to the bubble. It is possible to live without forking your money over to the stock market. It is harder to grow great wealth, but that is phony wealth at the moment or soon enough. If everyone invested in themselves, demanded a stable gold or gold backed currency, and eschewed the bubble gains in the markets, the gains would not be there and the manipulation would not be possible. That would reflect the reality of our current situation. Times will get tougher the longer we wait to see reality.

iso1631 7y ago

> I'm equally perplexed as to why people always seem to think a big downturn is right around the corner. There will be a downturn, sooner or later. Predict it every year and eventually you go down as the person who predicted the downturn.

axegon_ 7y ago

My point exactly. A broken watch is right twice a day. Let's assume that we are all in a simulation. A statement such as "the entity that created the simulation will pull the plug in what we perceive as two minutes". Well yeah, sure... Is it a valid statement? Yes. Is it accurate? Hell if I know.

jotakami 7y ago

In a nutshell, Austrian economics. Central banks have made money ridiculously cheap for over a decade, and this leads to malinvestment: investors pour this cheap money into projects that probably yield negative real returns, because there is way more money floating around than viable projects to spend it on. Spend capital on negative-yielding projects for long enough and you erode the productive capacity of the economy until a crisis hits. That’s the story; hard to say how well it describes reality but there’s surely a modicum of truth in there at least.

ghastmaster 7y ago

Time and date may not be predictable, but the simple math behind the modern monetary system of central banks is quite clear. Print or die. Inflation or recession. When the F.R.B. of the USA stops printing the market crashes. You can watch it happen if you are watching what they do. Since they are now wholly locked in a corner they only have the two options. Inflation or depression. Soon they will purchase stocks outright. We may not actually see a 2008 type scenario, but I'm not going to bet my house, car, and business on it. If we all saved and did not borrow, they could not print.

citrablue 7y ago
If time and date are unpredictable, what's the use? Suppose you switch to conservative investments now -- say, bonds. You're going to be hit less hard by the recession, but you also will have missed out on gains. So, unless you believe you can time the market, it doesn't appear like there is much to do except to make sure you have a rainy day fund. All my other money goes into the system.
- ghastmaster 7y ago
  Your sentiments contribute to the bubble. It is possible to live without forking your money over to the stock market. It is harder to grow great wealth, but that is phony wealth at the moment or soon enough. If everyone invested in themselves, demanded a stable gold or gold backed currency, and eschewed the bubble gains in the markets, the gains would not be there and the manipulation would not be possible. That would reflect the reality of our current situation. Times will get tougher the longer we wait to see reality.