7 ms·

I believe it goes further than this. WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate esti

I believe it goes further than this. WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Panic is not helpful in any situation, and leads to an unstable society, hoarding, and destructive behaviors.

dragonwriter 7y ago
> WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Transparently dishonest minimization itself risks causing panic.
hef19898 7y ago
And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.
- allovernow 7y ago
  > Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying. I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act differently in other countries, and sometimes those differences are negative.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    And you really do believe with all that international scrutiny China would get away with reporting false numbers? Come on. Also don't know what to make of your last sentence. Cultural differences being negative? What are you talking about?
    - allovernow 7y ago
      The grasp of the party pervades Chinese culture - particularly because their communications are monitored. China is effectively a black box. They so tightly control information that there is little the international community can gain from scrutiny. You are underestimating the awesome power of a modern orewellian surveillance state, and party loyalty had been forced into the culture of the average person. They will put their country first, and that includes maintaining that nothing severe is going on in their Homeland while they are abroad. Try asking any recent Chinese immigrants/visa workers you know, and you'll see how they tell you everything is fine. Just be aware you're putting them on the spot. Gulags are a powerful motivator.
- tristanj 7y ago
  It's widely reported that the confirmed case count published by China is far below the actual case count. This is due to several factors, including: * A high percentage of asymptomatic carriers (WHO est. 82%), who have mild symptoms and no need to go to the hospital. These victims are still able to transmit the virus to others. * Reporting the cause of death for suspected but not confirmed cases as "viral pneumonia". Doing so does not increase the coronavirus case count. https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-american-citizen-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-has-died-in-china-11581141185 https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-american-citizen-diagnosed-w... * A lack of supply of testing kits. https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-shortage-test-kits-lottery-2020-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-shor... * Turning away and not testing suspected patients due to lack of hospital beds. https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-american-airlines-suspend-hong-kong-service-as-coronavirus-saps-demand-11580897463 https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-american-airlines-suspen... * A high false-negative rate on testing kits, estimated as high as 30-50%. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-08/key-diagnostic-test-might-be-missing-many-coronavirus-cases-101513176.html https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-08/key-diagnostic-test-... Read that China and WHO are not "wrong" about the reported case numbers. They do not reflect how widespread the virus is. I've read reports that the true case count is 5-10x higher.
user5994461 7y ago
I'm making an interactive map showing the progression of the virus, from various sources. https://coronaprogress.com/ https://coronaprogress.com/ I don't believe anymore that they are trying to downplay it, or they are being really bad at it. We shall be approaching a hundred thousand confirmed cases within 10 days.

dragonwriter 7y ago

> WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Transparently dishonest minimization itself risks causing panic.

hef19898 7y ago

And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.

allovernow 7y ago
> Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying. I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act differently in other countries, and sometimes those differences are negative.
- hef19898 7y ago
  And you really do believe with all that international scrutiny China would get away with reporting false numbers? Come on. Also don't know what to make of your last sentence. Cultural differences being negative? What are you talking about?
  - allovernow 7y ago
    The grasp of the party pervades Chinese culture - particularly because their communications are monitored. China is effectively a black box. They so tightly control information that there is little the international community can gain from scrutiny. You are underestimating the awesome power of a modern orewellian surveillance state, and party loyalty had been forced into the culture of the average person. They will put their country first, and that includes maintaining that nothing severe is going on in their Homeland while they are abroad. Try asking any recent Chinese immigrants/visa workers you know, and you'll see how they tell you everything is fine. Just be aware you're putting them on the spot. Gulags are a powerful motivator.
tristanj 7y ago
It's widely reported that the confirmed case count published by China is far below the actual case count. This is due to several factors, including: * A high percentage of asymptomatic carriers (WHO est. 82%), who have mild symptoms and no need to go to the hospital. These victims are still able to transmit the virus to others. * Reporting the cause of death for suspected but not confirmed cases as "viral pneumonia". Doing so does not increase the coronavirus case count. https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-american-citizen-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-has-died-in-china-11581141185 https://www.wsj.com/articles/an-american-citizen-diagnosed-w... * A lack of supply of testing kits. https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-shortage-test-kits-lottery-2020-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-shor... * Turning away and not testing suspected patients due to lack of hospital beds. https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-american-airlines-suspend-hong-kong-service-as-coronavirus-saps-demand-11580897463 https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-american-airlines-suspen... * A high false-negative rate on testing kits, estimated as high as 30-50%. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-08/key-diagnostic-test-might-be-missing-many-coronavirus-cases-101513176.html https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-08/key-diagnostic-test-... Read that China and WHO are not "wrong" about the reported case numbers. They do not reflect how widespread the virus is. I've read reports that the true case count is 5-10x higher.

user5994461 7y ago

I'm making an interactive map showing the progression of the virus, from various sources. https://coronaprogress.com/ https://coronaprogress.com/ I don't believe anymore that they are trying to downplay it, or they are being really bad at it. We shall be approaching a hundred thousand confirmed cases within 10 days.