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That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and E
by cycrutchfield 7y ago
That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions.
If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world.
- ekianjo 7y ago> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
- skmurphy 7y agoMany under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
- ekianjo 7y agoNo hospital has been overrun by patients outside of China yet despite high awareness of symptoms.
- skmurphy 7y agoGood point. I hope that continues to be true.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoYet.
- ekianjo 7y agoSeveral weeks already. How long does this super highly infectious disease take to spread outside of China? You have to wonder the claims made on transmission at this stage.
- oxymoran 7y agoThe disease takes about 2-3 weeks to run its course through each patient. It’s slow burning and mildly yet unpredictably lethal. That sounds innocuous but it is a recipe for disaster.
- ekianjo 7y agoTransmission seems clearly far less bad than initially thought. If it were exponential we should be at millions infected right now.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoChina only has capacity to test a few thousand patients per day...
- skmurphy 7y agoFrom "Coronavirus outbreak 'just beginning' outside China, says expert" (Feb 12 2020) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-interview-idUSKBN2061KK https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-in... The Chinese government’s senior medical adviser has said the disease is hitting a peak in China and may be over by April. He said he was basing the forecast on mathematical modelling, recent events and government action. Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network that is coordinated by the World Health Organization, said that predicted “time course” may well be true if the virus is allowed to run free in Wuhan. The flu-like virus has killed more than 1,100 people and infected nearly 45,000, predominantly in China and mostly in Wuhan. Singapore has reported 50 coronavirus cases, one of the highest tallies outside China, including mounting evidence of local transmission. [...] Asked why there were so many cases in Singapore, he said there were comparatively more tests being conducted on the island. “We have a very low index of suspicion for testing people so...we do have higher ascertainment,” he said, but added that there was a lot about transmission of the virus yet to be understood.
- samstave 7y agoSome of the "repatriates" flown to Travis AFB in California, near SF, have been admitted to the hospital now, showing symptoms... This is being reported in local news as of this evening.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoYou sound a lot like the Wuhan government circa late December/early January. I'm not sure what to tell you. Unless you think that this virus somehow only targets people living in China, it's only a matter of time before it takes hold in other countries. This is not one that you can simply quarantine and isolate away like SARS. This one seems to be communicable at the earliest onset of symptoms, or even perhaps before.
- ekianjo 7y agoIts been several weeks already people are infected in several countries. Yet no sign of pandemic outside of China. I dont know what other facts you need.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoFirst recorded patient in Wuhan was December 8. It’s been 2 months since then. Even exponential growth takes some time.
- baxtr 7y agoDon’t you think there is a difference when no one is aware (back in December) and the way it is now?
- cycrutchfield 7y agoNot too much, no. But we will know who is right in just a few weeks, so we’ll see.
- hef19898 7y agoFast quarantine for example is one big difference. People with symptoms that could be Corona related going to hospitals is another big difference. Tests being developed. Hospitals being on alert. But believe whatever you want.