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I'm using his mortality rate of 1%. That's 20x the mortality rate of influenza in the US. If it's 2% like the media reports then it's 40x. It doesn't really mat
by eloff 7y ago
I'm using his mortality rate of 1%. That's 20x the mortality rate of influenza in the US. If it's 2% like the media reports then it's 40x. It doesn't really matter to me, either way is too deadly for my liking.
- WrtCdEvrydy 7y agoYou have to remember that when a virus is new and spreads quickly, resources and medical care around the area are strained. Look at the mortality rate outside of Wuhan to see what the real mortality under a controlled environment look like.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoThat's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions. If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world.
- ekianjo 7y ago> If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
- skmurphy 7y agoMany under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
- ekianjo 7y agoNo hospital has been overrun by patients outside of China yet despite high awareness of symptoms.
- skmurphy 7y agoGood point. I hope that continues to be true.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoYet.
- ekianjo 7y agoSeveral weeks already. How long does this super highly infectious disease take to spread outside of China? You have to wonder the claims made on transmission at this stage.
- oxymoran 7y agoThe disease takes about 2-3 weeks to run its course through each patient. It’s slow burning and mildly yet unpredictably lethal. That sounds innocuous but it is a recipe for disaster.
- ekianjo 7y agoTransmission seems clearly far less bad than initially thought. If it were exponential we should be at millions infected right now.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoChina only has capacity to test a few thousand patients per day...
- 7y ago
- cycrutchfield 7y agoYou sound a lot like the Wuhan government circa late December/early January. I'm not sure what to tell you. Unless you think that this virus somehow only targets people living in China, it's only a matter of time before it takes hold in other countries. This is not one that you can simply quarantine and isolate away like SARS. This one seems to be communicable at the earliest onset of symptoms, or even perhaps before.
- ekianjo 7y agoIts been several weeks already people are infected in several countries. Yet no sign of pandemic outside of China. I dont know what other facts you need.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoFirst recorded patient in Wuhan was December 8. It’s been 2 months since then. Even exponential growth takes some time.
- baxtr 7y agoDon’t you think there is a difference when no one is aware (back in December) and the way it is now?
- cycrutchfield 7y agoNot too much, no. But we will know who is right in just a few weeks, so we’ll see.
- hef19898 7y agoFast quarantine for example is one big difference. People with symptoms that could be Corona related going to hospitals is another big difference. Tests being developed. Hospitals being on alert. But believe whatever you want.