5 ms·

You can only do the math right if you get counter and denominator right. The number of unreported cases is probably very high. I found this in the article post

by baxtr 7y ago

You can only do the math right if you get counter and denominator right. The number of unreported cases is probably very high. I found this in the article posted above: ”So the 20,000 cases in China is probably only the severe cases; the folks that actually went to the hospital and got tested. The Chinese healthcare system is very overwhelmed with all the tests going through. So my thinking is this is actually not as severe a disease as is being suggested. The fatality rate is probably only 0.8%-1%. There’s a vast underreporting of cases in China. Compared to Sars and Mers we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of 8 to 10 times less deadly to Sars to Mers. So a correct comparison is not Sars or Mers but a severe cold. Basically this is a severe form of the cold.”

eloff 7y ago
I'm using his mortality rate of 1%. That's 20x the mortality rate of influenza in the US. If it's 2% like the media reports then it's 40x. It doesn't really matter to me, either way is too deadly for my liking.
- WrtCdEvrydy 7y ago
  You have to remember that when a virus is new and spreads quickly, resources and medical care around the area are strained. Look at the mortality rate outside of Wuhan to see what the real mortality under a controlled environment look like.
  - cycrutchfield 7y ago
    That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions. If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world.
    - ekianjo 7y ago
      > If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
      - skmurphy 7y ago
        Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
        ekianjo 7y ago
        No hospital has been overrun by patients outside of China yet despite high awareness of symptoms.
        skmurphy 7y ago
        Good point. I hope that continues to be true.
        cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Yet.
        ekianjo 7y ago
        Several weeks already. How long does this super highly infectious disease take to spread outside of China? You have to wonder the claims made on transmission at this stage.
        oxymoran 7y ago
        The disease takes about 2-3 weeks to run its course through each patient. It’s slow burning and mildly yet unpredictably lethal. That sounds innocuous but it is a recipe for disaster.
cycrutchfield 7y ago
Saying that it's an order of magnitude less deadly than SARS doesn't exactly allay any concerns when it's still at least an order of magnitude more deadly than the flu, and probably twice as communicable. "A severe form of the cold" is the understatement of the century.
- skmurphy 7y ago
  I agree, It's viral pneumonia for those over 60 and heavy smokers. China has 240M people who are 60 or older. Assuming a 2% mortality in that population and the fact that many of the younger infected have mild symptoms, 1/4 to 1/2 of these folks may be infected in the next 3-6 months. That's 1-2M fatalities.
  - torgian 7y ago
    Everyone is a heavy smoker in China; air pollution levels and all that. So that stacks the odds against them already.
    - skmurphy 7y ago
      Statistics I saw indicated that 2% of women smoke and 60% of men. This may account for a gender-linked differential between more serious outcomes for men, it could be a selection for smokers. I agree that the air pollution may push even non-smokers into the risk category for smokers in other countries and push smokers into a deeper level of risk.
toss1 7y ago
I also assumed that the death rate was lower due to under-diagnosis of mild cases -- until a few hours ago when I asked a few questions to someone with connections to Wuhan. The response indicated that the deaths were likely significantly under-reported, as in: not counting the people dying while waiting to get into the hospital, or who never make it there. Plausible since there is both no incentive to report higher rates than confirmed, and not a lot of spare bandwidth to test cases already lost. The real question now is which is more under-reported, cases or deaths. Either way, reading here details of the mechanism of death, it is far too virulent and deadly for complacency. Looks like the prevailing approach is a very healthy Normalcy Bias.
oxymoran 7y ago
Why are they building 12 hospitals at breakneck speed for a severe cold? Do you honestly believe that?
- Danieru 7y ago
  Wuhan's Healthcare system could not handle a widespread cold break out either. Much of the rest of the world has sufficient capacity to hospitalize patients to prevent an outbreak. China being China is behind both due to recent industrialization and also an authoritarian state which lied about the dangers. Take it how you want, but this is a severe flu which would not have survived in more industrialized nations.

by baxtr 7y ago

eloff 7y ago

I'm using his mortality rate of 1%. That's 20x the mortality rate of influenza in the US. If it's 2% like the media reports then it's 40x. It doesn't really matter to me, either way is too deadly for my liking.

WrtCdEvrydy 7y ago
You have to remember that when a virus is new and spreads quickly, resources and medical care around the area are strained. Look at the mortality rate outside of Wuhan to see what the real mortality under a controlled environment look like.
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  That's part of the problem though. Mortality rate outside of Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators and ECMO, etc.) Mortality rate within Wuhan reflects the mortality rate under pandemic conditions. If the rest of China looks like Hubei in a few weeks, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout all of China. If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world.
  - ekianjo 7y ago
    > If other countries start to look like China in a month or two, we will be in pandemic conditions throughout the world. Your "if" is completely unfounded. Outside of China infections are not following any exponential trend at all.
    - skmurphy 7y ago
      Many under 60 exhibit mild symptoms. Surveillance in Thailand and Malaysia may not be catching many of the infected.
      - ekianjo 7y ago
        No hospital has been overrun by patients outside of China yet despite high awareness of symptoms.
        skmurphy 7y ago
        Good point. I hope that continues to be true.
        cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Yet.
        ekianjo 7y ago
        Several weeks already. How long does this super highly infectious disease take to spread outside of China? You have to wonder the claims made on transmission at this stage.
        oxymoran 7y ago
        The disease takes about 2-3 weeks to run its course through each patient. It’s slow burning and mildly yet unpredictably lethal. That sounds innocuous but it is a recipe for disaster.

cycrutchfield 7y ago

Saying that it's an order of magnitude less deadly than SARS doesn't exactly allay any concerns when it's still at least an order of magnitude more deadly than the flu, and probably twice as communicable. "A severe form of the cold" is the understatement of the century.

skmurphy 7y ago
I agree, It's viral pneumonia for those over 60 and heavy smokers. China has 240M people who are 60 or older. Assuming a 2% mortality in that population and the fact that many of the younger infected have mild symptoms, 1/4 to 1/2 of these folks may be infected in the next 3-6 months. That's 1-2M fatalities.
- torgian 7y ago
  Everyone is a heavy smoker in China; air pollution levels and all that. So that stacks the odds against them already.
  - skmurphy 7y ago
    Statistics I saw indicated that 2% of women smoke and 60% of men. This may account for a gender-linked differential between more serious outcomes for men, it could be a selection for smokers. I agree that the air pollution may push even non-smokers into the risk category for smokers in other countries and push smokers into a deeper level of risk.

toss1 7y ago

I also assumed that the death rate was lower due to under-diagnosis of mild cases -- until a few hours ago when I asked a few questions to someone with connections to Wuhan. The response indicated that the deaths were likely significantly under-reported, as in: not counting the people dying while waiting to get into the hospital, or who never make it there. Plausible since there is both no incentive to report higher rates than confirmed, and not a lot of spare bandwidth to test cases already lost. The real question now is which is more under-reported, cases or deaths. Either way, reading here details of the mechanism of death, it is far too virulent and deadly for complacency. Looks like the prevailing approach is a very healthy Normalcy Bias.

oxymoran 7y ago

Why are they building 12 hospitals at breakneck speed for a severe cold? Do you honestly believe that?

Danieru 7y ago
Wuhan's Healthcare system could not handle a widespread cold break out either. Much of the rest of the world has sufficient capacity to hospitalize patients to prevent an outbreak. China being China is behind both due to recent industrialization and also an authoritarian state which lied about the dangers. Take it how you want, but this is a severe flu which would not have survived in more industrialized nations.