6 ms·

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit

Honestly if there is truth to this article it is reassuring. I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. This doctor is working on the absolute worst of cases and even they, it seems, have a high overall probability of survival. Also good to see some figures on the progression of the virus - 5-10 days of incubation, 1 week before symptoms either improve or worsen, then one more week before severe cases recover or die. Regardless, we should all be paying attention to the quarantined cruise ships. In a few weeks or so we'll have much a more accurate mortality rate. I feel for those people but perhaps there is some comfort in knowing that their losses will not be without value.

DanielleMolloy 7y ago
Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?
- user5994461 7y ago
  The WHO also announced 5-6 days average incubation with a mortality rate around 3%.
  - allovernow 7y ago
    The WHO has been reporting numbers almost identical to those out of China, which are unquestionably and severely underreported and can only represent a distant lower bound. I don't think anything coming from the WHO can be trusted. I honestly think it hugely irresponsible for the WHO to report these numbers without clear disclaimers. In fact, there are clear politics at play here, as the WHO has only come out with massive praise for China's response, making no mention of the CCP's clear attempt to keep knowledge of the virus from spreading and the silencing of activists and the medical community at large by charging them with spreading false rumors. If China had taken proactive measures months ago instead of initiating a campaign of suppression things would be different now.
    - tristanj 7y ago
      I believe it goes further than this. WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Panic is not helpful in any situation, and leads to an unstable society, hoarding, and destructive behaviors.
      - dragonwriter 7y ago
        > WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Transparently dishonest minimization itself risks causing panic.
      - hef19898 7y ago
        And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.
        allovernow 7y ago
        > Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying. I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act differently in other countries, and sometimes those differences are negative.
        hef19898 7y ago
        And you really do believe with all that international scrutiny China would get away with reporting false numbers? Come on. Also don't know what to make of your last sentence. Cultural differences being negative? What are you talking about?
- allovernow 7y ago
  You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and the only antidote to authoritarian control is numbers. It's plausible that enough Chinese sympathetic to dissemination of such critical information have gathered such that an article like this may be genuine. Moreover, while many terrible rumors ostensibly from educated and/or directly witnessing sources from the dregs of the web have turned out to be true, these sources are even less reliable than the CCP, given the propensity of netizens for exaggerating and/or deliberately spreading falsehoods. Which is to say reports out of China may not be that much less reliable than much of what is floating around and at this point, as ridiculous as I know it sounds, I'm almost willing to relax my suspicion and cling to slivers of hope. The undesputed facts so far are grim. 80-90% of the Chinese GDP has been shut down, we still don't know with certainty just how contagious or dangerous the virus actually is, but it is obviously more virulent than any of the previous viruses from the Corona family, and if for whatever reason containment fails for an extended period of time in a region, you can expect severe social hardship. How long can China continue to operate at 10% capacity? It is only prudent in my opinion to make at least minimal preparations now with 1-2 months of food and water before panic potentially sets in and stores are emptied. There is still a high probability that the virus will be sufficiently contained and minimally deadly, but this also is shaping up to possibly be the biggest threat faced by civilization in centuries, exceeding the Spanish Flu of the early 1900s. I'm about halfway through Gallaher's report linked in these comments (very thankful for it) and I hope I'm wrong, but even his numbers are understandably prefaced with uncertainty.
  - anaanymouse 7y ago
    Thank you for this - can't find Gallaher's report, would you mind linking it again?
    - allovernow 7y ago
      http://virological.org/t/analysis-of-wuhan-coronavirus-deja-vu/357 http://virological.org/t/analysis-of-wuhan-coronavirus-deja-... I don't know who this guy is but he and his son are awesome.
- DaniFong 7y ago
  Even though this is true, Caixin has been allowed some leniency, especially in reporting this outbreak. Some reports have been very distinct from the official reporting, although it appears that some articles have also been retracted. In times of a crisis like this, some signal will get through.
- 07d046 7y ago
  Caixin is the best Chinese news source in normal times, and at this time all Chinese news is more free to report on the virus. As someone very critical of the CCP, I'd say Caixin's reporting here is as authoritative as anywhere.
  - microcolonel 7y ago
    > as authoritative as anywhere Specifically in the category of news media companies. There are many stories that they simply can not publish, being based out of Beijing. These stories, at best, will be published to social media by individuals in the thick of it.
kccqzy 7y ago
> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some truly harrowing stories of ordinary people being refused treatment and left to die at home.
- allovernow 7y ago
  I don't but if you do you have a huge opportunity here to spread critical information to the world, if you are willing and able to post translations.
  - tristanj 7y ago
    I shared the story of a Wuhan coronavirus survivor here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22272264 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22272264 It’s an account from a 23 year old healthy male who contracted the virus late December. He was hospitalized with fever and developed pneumonia. Within a week he was in critical condition with near fatally low blood oxygen (claimed 60%) and digestive issues. He would have died without medical treatment. There are several stories like this shared on Chinese media but they’re not shared with the rest of the world.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      And all these cases are anecdotal data. Reporting or not reporting them doesn't change anything regarding the Corona virus and the overall number. Quite the contrary, these stories are totally in line with official reports and thesis / papers by doctors, virologists and so forth. Because is disputing that the severe cases are ugly and, well, severe.
      - tristanj 7y ago
        I disagree. Stories and anecdotes are a much more effective way to communicate the situation to the public than guidelines, facts, and figures. I've had people try to tell me "You don't need to worry, the virus only affects elderly people, younger people who get it will be fine." (paraphrasing) I respond with this datapoint to let people know the virus can be severe, requiring hospitalization, even for young people.
therealcamino 7y ago
Regarding sources, I came across this article in the Sinocism newsletter from Bill Bishop. I only subscribe to the free version, but during the coronavirus crisis he's been making the full version free. It's a pretty broad survey of both Chinese and English language sources, usually with an economic and political focus. It's at sinocism.com.
franknine 7y ago
We had a SARS outbreak in Taiwan since we trusted the statement from Chinese government back then. This time we assume coronavirus can do person to person transmission and blocked travel to WuHan back when CCP and WHO were downplaying its ability to spread. That's how we have less cases than Japan, Korea and Hong Kong now. Recently Taiwanese people in WuHan asked for evacuation. CCP denied our request at first, then they allowed but the plane had to be operated by them. We requested to fly children, elderly and people with medical condition first, instead they flew wealthy businessmen with good connection to CCP and their China spouses. Three people on that plane exhibit symptoms at customs and one of them is confirmed infected with coronavirus. Now we have to quarantine all 200+ people boarded.
- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
  > We requested to fly children, elderly and people with medical condition first, instead they flew wealthy businessmen with good connection to CCP and their China spouses. Wow, that’s disgusting.
  - joejerryronnie 7y ago
    But not surprising
- loyukfai 7y ago
  Do you have a source for this? Either English or Chinese can will do. Thanks.
  - franknine 7y ago
    Reuters (English) https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN201067 https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/... CNA (Chinese) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cna.com.tw/amp/news/firstnews/202002050217.aspx https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cna.com.tw/amp/news/firstne...
    - loyukfai 7y ago
pmorici 7y ago
I mentioned this in another thread as well but I recommend watching MedCram's video series on nCov. They have been doing daily videos since late January, [0] really good no nonsense information. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I The danger here is that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed by the high percentage of patients requiring intensive care.
- microcolonel 7y ago
  In particular, if this gets really out of hand in the west, we may not have enough oxygen facilities to support patients anywhere. Most hospitals are not equipped to provide high volume oxygen to thousands of people at a time.

DanielleMolloy 7y ago

Isn’t Caixin Global a Chinese news source, almost certainly filtered? Do you have a reason to believe them more than the dark corners?

user5994461 7y ago
The WHO also announced 5-6 days average incubation with a mortality rate around 3%.
- allovernow 7y ago
  The WHO has been reporting numbers almost identical to those out of China, which are unquestionably and severely underreported and can only represent a distant lower bound. I don't think anything coming from the WHO can be trusted. I honestly think it hugely irresponsible for the WHO to report these numbers without clear disclaimers. In fact, there are clear politics at play here, as the WHO has only come out with massive praise for China's response, making no mention of the CCP's clear attempt to keep knowledge of the virus from spreading and the silencing of activists and the medical community at large by charging them with spreading false rumors. If China had taken proactive measures months ago instead of initiating a campaign of suppression things would be different now.
  - tristanj 7y ago
    I believe it goes further than this. WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Panic is not helpful in any situation, and leads to an unstable society, hoarding, and destructive behaviors.
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      > WHO and China are both trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic because they know if they publish more accurate estimates, it will cause mass panic. Transparently dishonest minimization itself risks causing panic.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      And what makes you believe that to be true? Have any WHO numbers been proven wrong in the past for, say, ebola? SARS? Or any other epidemic or disease? Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Because that is how you spread panic if you ask me.
      - allovernow 7y ago
        > Or is it because it is China that a lots of people prefer to not believe them? Jesus man this is a modern day authoritarian regime with a fully digitized social credit score and reeducation camps for dissidents. Yes, it is perfectly rational not to trust what Chinese people are saying. I can't believe how thoroughly the notion of culture has been wiped from the American psyche. People on average think and act differently in other countries, and sometimes those differences are negative.
        hef19898 7y ago
        And you really do believe with all that international scrutiny China would get away with reporting false numbers? Come on. Also don't know what to make of your last sentence. Cultural differences being negative? What are you talking about?
allovernow 7y ago
You're right, and this could very well be a propaganda piece, but it somehow comes off as genuine. There are activists in China who recognize the severity, understand the grasp of the party, and still desperately attempt to reach out - including the selfless doctor who died yesterday, and a number of activists who have already been disappeared. No doubt the number of such people has been increasing exponentially and the only antidote to authoritarian control is numbers. It's plausible that enough Chinese sympathetic to dissemination of such critical information have gathered such that an article like this may be genuine. Moreover, while many terrible rumors ostensibly from educated and/or directly witnessing sources from the dregs of the web have turned out to be true, these sources are even less reliable than the CCP, given the propensity of netizens for exaggerating and/or deliberately spreading falsehoods. Which is to say reports out of China may not be that much less reliable than much of what is floating around and at this point, as ridiculous as I know it sounds, I'm almost willing to relax my suspicion and cling to slivers of hope. The undesputed facts so far are grim. 80-90% of the Chinese GDP has been shut down, we still don't know with certainty just how contagious or dangerous the virus actually is, but it is obviously more virulent than any of the previous viruses from the Corona family, and if for whatever reason containment fails for an extended period of time in a region, you can expect severe social hardship. How long can China continue to operate at 10% capacity? It is only prudent in my opinion to make at least minimal preparations now with 1-2 months of food and water before panic potentially sets in and stores are emptied. There is still a high probability that the virus will be sufficiently contained and minimally deadly, but this also is shaping up to possibly be the biggest threat faced by civilization in centuries, exceeding the Spanish Flu of the early 1900s. I'm about halfway through Gallaher's report linked in these comments (very thankful for it) and I hope I'm wrong, but even his numbers are understandably prefaced with uncertainty.
- anaanymouse 7y ago
  Thank you for this - can't find Gallaher's report, would you mind linking it again?
  - allovernow 7y ago
    http://virological.org/t/analysis-of-wuhan-coronavirus-deja-vu/357 http://virological.org/t/analysis-of-wuhan-coronavirus-deja-... I don't know who this guy is but he and his son are awesome.
DaniFong 7y ago
Even though this is true, Caixin has been allowed some leniency, especially in reporting this outbreak. Some reports have been very distinct from the official reporting, although it appears that some articles have also been retracted. In times of a crisis like this, some signal will get through.
07d046 7y ago
Caixin is the best Chinese news source in normal times, and at this time all Chinese news is more free to report on the virus. As someone very critical of the CCP, I'd say Caixin's reporting here is as authoritative as anywhere.
- microcolonel 7y ago
  > as authoritative as anywhere Specifically in the category of news media companies. There are many stories that they simply can not publish, being based out of Beijing. These stories, at best, will be published to social media by individuals in the thick of it.

kccqzy 7y ago

> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted. I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some truly harrowing stories of ordinary people being refused treatment and left to die at home.

allovernow 7y ago
I don't but if you do you have a huge opportunity here to spread critical information to the world, if you are willing and able to post translations.
- tristanj 7y ago
  I shared the story of a Wuhan coronavirus survivor here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22272264 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22272264 It’s an account from a 23 year old healthy male who contracted the virus late December. He was hospitalized with fever and developed pneumonia. Within a week he was in critical condition with near fatally low blood oxygen (claimed 60%) and digestive issues. He would have died without medical treatment. There are several stories like this shared on Chinese media but they’re not shared with the rest of the world.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    And all these cases are anecdotal data. Reporting or not reporting them doesn't change anything regarding the Corona virus and the overall number. Quite the contrary, these stories are totally in line with official reports and thesis / papers by doctors, virologists and so forth. Because is disputing that the severe cases are ugly and, well, severe.
    - tristanj 7y ago
      I disagree. Stories and anecdotes are a much more effective way to communicate the situation to the public than guidelines, facts, and figures. I've had people try to tell me "You don't need to worry, the virus only affects elderly people, younger people who get it will be fine." (paraphrasing) I respond with this datapoint to let people know the virus can be severe, requiring hospitalization, even for young people.

therealcamino 7y ago

Regarding sources, I came across this article in the Sinocism newsletter from Bill Bishop. I only subscribe to the free version, but during the coronavirus crisis he's been making the full version free. It's a pretty broad survey of both Chinese and English language sources, usually with an economic and political focus. It's at sinocism.com.

franknine 7y ago

We had a SARS outbreak in Taiwan since we trusted the statement from Chinese government back then. This time we assume coronavirus can do person to person transmission and blocked travel to WuHan back when CCP and WHO were downplaying its ability to spread. That's how we have less cases than Japan, Korea and Hong Kong now. Recently Taiwanese people in WuHan asked for evacuation. CCP denied our request at first, then they allowed but the plane had to be operated by them. We requested to fly children, elderly and people with medical condition first, instead they flew wealthy businessmen with good connection to CCP and their China spouses. Three people on that plane exhibit symptoms at customs and one of them is confirmed infected with coronavirus. Now we have to quarantine all 200+ people boarded.

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
> We requested to fly children, elderly and people with medical condition first, instead they flew wealthy businessmen with good connection to CCP and their China spouses. Wow, that’s disgusting.
- joejerryronnie 7y ago
  But not surprising
loyukfai 7y ago
Do you have a source for this? Either English or Chinese can will do. Thanks.
- franknine 7y ago
  Reuters (English) https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN201067 https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/... CNA (Chinese) https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cna.com.tw/amp/news/firstnews/202002050217.aspx https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cna.com.tw/amp/news/firstne...
  - loyukfai 7y ago

pmorici 7y ago

I mentioned this in another thread as well but I recommend watching MedCram's video series on nCov. They have been doing daily videos since late January, [0] really good no nonsense information. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMXSkKLg2I The danger here is that the healthcare system gets overwhelmed by the high percentage of patients requiring intensive care.

microcolonel 7y ago
In particular, if this gets really out of hand in the west, we may not have enough oxygen facilities to support patients anywhere. Most hospitals are not equipped to provide high volume oxygen to thousands of people at a time.