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> Condorcet Paradox: a special instance of Simpson’s paradox applied to elections, in which a populace prefers candidate A to candidate B, candidate B to C, and
by tunesmith 7y ago
> Condorcet Paradox: a special instance of Simpson’s paradox applied to elections, in which a populace prefers candidate A to candidate B, candidate B to C, and yet candidate C to A. This occurs because the majority that favors C is misleadingly divided among different groups.
I found this really interesting because I have never thought of a Condorcet Loop, or a Smith Set, in the context of Simpson's Paradox before.
I've also enjoyed Judea Pearl's points about how Simpsons Paradox scenarios sometimes don't even have a correct interpretation until you are clear about what your assumptions are and what you are trying to measure.
I've always suspected that the Smith Set might just mean that the electorate isn't ready to decide yet, and that another round of elections might be warranted, but it's interesting to consider that a Smith Set might also give clues on what questions to ask to better determine the winner.
- someguyorother 7y agoA Condorcet loop can happen if different parts of the electorate values different things. E.g. some people value foreign policy experience, other people value integrity, and yet other people value left vs right. Going from a foreign policy experience ranking to an integrity ranking to an economic ranking can take you around the loop. But how would the electorate come to a conclusion about which issue is most important? The Condorcet loop could be fundamental to the voters' opinions.