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Maybe a better analogy isn't milk, but car seats? I was surprised to learn about car seat expiration when I became a parent, but it makes sense -- the materials

Maybe a better analogy isn't milk, but car seats? I was surprised to learn about car seat expiration when I became a parent, but it makes sense -- the materials themselves break down over time, and safety standards and research evolve. I don't think it's too big of a leap to see software in a similar way. Even if the code itself still runs just fine in ten years, likely the context it runs in has long changed.

Swizec 7y ago
Seatbelts too. And airbags. Afaik you're supposed to replace those every 10 years or so. Most people of course don't. Another good one most people forget: Hard drives last about 5 years. CD-Rs are rated for 10 years. A flash drive can go for 10 years. SSD holds data for about 2 years. The electronics themselves in many modern consumer devices are basically kaput after 4 to 5 years. Point is you are likely overestimating the lifespan of your devices even without taking software into account.
- JohnFen 7y ago
  > Hard drives last about 5 years. I've often heard this, but I regularly use hard drives for much longer than that. I've only ever had one fail.
  - winternett 7y ago
    SSDs now though may likely change that. If they fail early, they were likely manufactured to do so, or there was some other issue like power surges.
    - JohnFen 7y ago
      True, but I'm not yet comfortable with using SSDs for anything of importance.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
- tluyben2 7y ago
  Hard drives 5 years; yeah it happens but then usually fast after active use: if they do not fail fast then they usually keep going. I have 100s of HD's here from 25 to a few years ago and most of them work fine. Especially the 90s/00s then-expensive scsi discs do not seem to fail. But cheap internal and external HD's from that time are also still all working. If they get beyond 5 years (and by far most do), they get to 20. Anecdotal ofcourse.
  - winternett 7y ago
    Don't worry, all the other peripherals will lose driver support, and your processor will crack long before 5 years anyway... Hah.
    - tluyben2 7y ago
      New stuff will; (unix) workstations and servers from 20-25 years ago are running fine inc all hds.
leoedin 7y ago
The car seat thing is actually mostly unfounded. There's a lot of social panic about child safety. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketplace.org/2019/11/14/is-there-any-data-that-says-secondhand-car-seats-arent-safe/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketplace.org/2019/11/14/...
- anyonecancode 7y ago
  And in a future where software-dependent devices have expiry dates, we can debate if worries about using them past their published expiration are warranted or are examples of social panic. I think a future where those debates happen, as opposed to one where the majority of people are not even aware of it as an issue worth considering, is a better one.
- ThePowerOfFuet 7y ago
  Can you please try not to post AMP links to HN?
ken 7y ago
And yet, there are plenty of products which never expire. Petzl says their plastic and textile products have a lifespan of 10 years, while their metal products (which I regularly trust my life to) never expire. https://www.petzl.com/US/en/Sport/FAQ/what-is-the-lifetime-of-my-petzl-equipment https://www.petzl.com/US/en/Sport/FAQ/what-is-the-lifetime-o... There are newer (government or industry) safety standards, as you note, which might reasonably cause one to retire functioning equipment. (For example, retiring dual-action carabiners in favor of triple-action carabiners.) But that's not because there's anything wrong with the equipment. Just because 2020 gear is a bit safer doesn't mean 2010 gear was dangerous. 2010 wasn't that long ago. Those safety standards were already quite good. Besides, that's not what's causing software like this to need an expiration date. IOT devices where the server gets shut down are not going dark because of some new security research. We as an industry knew full well that using "password" as the password was a terrible practice, even way back in 2010.
dragonwriter 7y ago
> Maybe a better analogy isn't milk, but car seats? I That's a good analogy: software, like car seats, generally doesn't go bad with time, but the people that sold it would definitely like to sell you new software.

Swizec 7y ago

Seatbelts too. And airbags. Afaik you're supposed to replace those every 10 years or so. Most people of course don't. Another good one most people forget: Hard drives last about 5 years. CD-Rs are rated for 10 years. A flash drive can go for 10 years. SSD holds data for about 2 years. The electronics themselves in many modern consumer devices are basically kaput after 4 to 5 years. Point is you are likely overestimating the lifespan of your devices even without taking software into account.

JohnFen 7y ago
> Hard drives last about 5 years. I've often heard this, but I regularly use hard drives for much longer than that. I've only ever had one fail.
- winternett 7y ago
  SSDs now though may likely change that. If they fail early, they were likely manufactured to do so, or there was some other issue like power surges.
  - JohnFen 7y ago
    True, but I'm not yet comfortable with using SSDs for anything of importance.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
tluyben2 7y ago
Hard drives 5 years; yeah it happens but then usually fast after active use: if they do not fail fast then they usually keep going. I have 100s of HD's here from 25 to a few years ago and most of them work fine. Especially the 90s/00s then-expensive scsi discs do not seem to fail. But cheap internal and external HD's from that time are also still all working. If they get beyond 5 years (and by far most do), they get to 20. Anecdotal ofcourse.
- winternett 7y ago
  Don't worry, all the other peripherals will lose driver support, and your processor will crack long before 5 years anyway... Hah.
  - tluyben2 7y ago
    New stuff will; (unix) workstations and servers from 20-25 years ago are running fine inc all hds.

leoedin 7y ago

The car seat thing is actually mostly unfounded. There's a lot of social panic about child safety. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketplace.org/2019/11/14/is-there-any-data-that-says-secondhand-car-seats-arent-safe/amp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketplace.org/2019/11/14/...

anyonecancode 7y ago
And in a future where software-dependent devices have expiry dates, we can debate if worries about using them past their published expiration are warranted or are examples of social panic. I think a future where those debates happen, as opposed to one where the majority of people are not even aware of it as an issue worth considering, is a better one.
ThePowerOfFuet 7y ago
Can you please try not to post AMP links to HN?

ken 7y ago

And yet, there are plenty of products which never expire. Petzl says their plastic and textile products have a lifespan of 10 years, while their metal products (which I regularly trust my life to) never expire. https://www.petzl.com/US/en/Sport/FAQ/what-is-the-lifetime-of-my-petzl-equipment https://www.petzl.com/US/en/Sport/FAQ/what-is-the-lifetime-o... There are newer (government or industry) safety standards, as you note, which might reasonably cause one to retire functioning equipment. (For example, retiring dual-action carabiners in favor of triple-action carabiners.) But that's not because there's anything wrong with the equipment. Just because 2020 gear is a bit safer doesn't mean 2010 gear was dangerous. 2010 wasn't that long ago. Those safety standards were already quite good. Besides, that's not what's causing software like this to need an expiration date. IOT devices where the server gets shut down are not going dark because of some new security research. We as an industry knew full well that using "password" as the password was a terrible practice, even way back in 2010.

dragonwriter 7y ago

> Maybe a better analogy isn't milk, but car seats? I That's a good analogy: software, like car seats, generally doesn't go bad with time, but the people that sold it would definitely like to sell you new software.