Sounds like managers are risk averse because they'll get the blame if something goes wrong but not the credit if it goes right. But I don't think the risk has

Sounds like managers are risk averse because they'll get the blame if something goes wrong but not the credit if it goes right. But I don't think the risk has to be so big. By the end of an interview process, candidates I talk to already know where I think they should improve because that's part of the back and forth discussion in the interview itself. I also like to actually get to know the person a little bit which helps me judge how they'll respond. I'm also not afraid to make an offer on the low side instead of rejecting outright, etc.