3 ms·

10 year projections are mostly off by an order of magnitude. Wright's law (https://ark-invest.com/research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin https://ark

10 year projections are mostly off by an order of magnitude. Wright's law (https://ark-invest.com/research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin https://ark-invest.com/research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-... https://ark-invest.com/research/wrights-law-2 https://ark-invest.com/research/wrights-law-2 ) predicts that as electric cars get competitive with gasoline cars in a few years, production will accerelate in the middle of the decade. As batteries get cheaper by about 18%/year, production can ramp up by 30-50%/year If you use 30%/year for battery production increase, you arrive at 4TWh/year at ~2030. For 50%/year production increase you get 17TWh/year. There's a reason why I'm really excited for Tesla's battery day, as they clearly want to get closer to 50%/year and not 30%/year production increase.

manfredo 7y ago
Price and global production capacity are two different figures. Global capacity is limited by things like raw materials. Regardless even if we go with your more optimistic projections, you're still talking about 5-7 years of global battery production to fulfill the storage demands of a single country. Consider that a large part of this battery production will go towards electric cars and electronics, it'll likely take the better part of a century to produce enough storage to power the globe on intermittent sources.
- xiphias2 7y ago
  ,,it'll likely take the better part of a century to produce enough storage to power the globe on intermittent sources'' We're talking about 20-30 years, and sure, I don't see the will from people (especially poor people who elect politicians, but can't afford renewable energy) for going faster.
  - manfredo 7y ago
    We're not talking 20-30 years. Even by your more optimistic estimate of 4TWh of global battery production by 2030, it would still take 5-7 years worth of global battery production supply to fulfill just the United States' storage needs. Currently the US accounts for ~17% of global energy consumption, but that share is going to be lower in the future as less developed countries expand their energy production capacity. And on top of that, we're not going to be dedicating the entirety of our battery production to energy storage because we'll still be building electronics and electric vehicles.

manfredo 7y ago

Price and global production capacity are two different figures. Global capacity is limited by things like raw materials. Regardless even if we go with your more optimistic projections, you're still talking about 5-7 years of global battery production to fulfill the storage demands of a single country. Consider that a large part of this battery production will go towards electric cars and electronics, it'll likely take the better part of a century to produce enough storage to power the globe on intermittent sources.

xiphias2 7y ago
,,it'll likely take the better part of a century to produce enough storage to power the globe on intermittent sources'' We're talking about 20-30 years, and sure, I don't see the will from people (especially poor people who elect politicians, but can't afford renewable energy) for going faster.
- manfredo 7y ago
  We're not talking 20-30 years. Even by your more optimistic estimate of 4TWh of global battery production by 2030, it would still take 5-7 years worth of global battery production supply to fulfill just the United States' storage needs. Currently the US accounts for ~17% of global energy consumption, but that share is going to be lower in the future as less developed countries expand their energy production capacity. And on top of that, we're not going to be dedicating the entirety of our battery production to energy storage because we'll still be building electronics and electric vehicles.