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I think what triggers an enormous amount of panic are the stories from Chinese social media - contradicting official Chinese reports. I cannot tell what's true

I think what triggers an enormous amount of panic are the stories from Chinese social media - contradicting official Chinese reports. I cannot tell what's true and what's hyperbole... The government numbers don't seem so bad - but then some of the quarantine measures seem oddly harsh if the numbers were true. Stories of Tencent "accidentally" leaking numbers online that are 10x what the government is reporting - stories of crematoriums being inundated with corpses - pictures of death certificates omitting the cause - the banning of funerals - videos of women being pulled off the street to be forcibly transported to a quarantine center (that one was particularly concerning) - etc... The numbers from China are suspect of course - it's statistically hard to imagine such a global contagion last week with the small number of confirmed cases the Chinese gov't was publishing. I don't want to overreact... but I also don't want to underreact.

alasdair_ 7y ago
The Tencent thing is definitely erroneous. The numbers “leaked” were just a transposition of the number of known cases transposed as “dead”. I absolutely hate that China’s powers that be decided to hush up the outbreak. Shame on them. But this specific case is just an error magnified by social media (which very fairly doesn’t believe the official party line either).
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Can you clarify what's being transposed in the Tencent leak? Here's the writeup: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
  - alasdair_ 7y ago
    Sure. Let me start with a more general observation: those Tencent numbers imply a death rate of at least one in six. Yet when you look at figures from outside of China, we absolute do not have a 1:6 infection to death ratio in known cases from places without any CCP influence. As for the transposition: 154,023 was almost exactly the number of people being monitored for coronavirus. This was NOT the number of confirmed cases, just the people being monitored. 24,589 is almost exactly the number of confirmed cases, yet here it's reported as "deaths". In this particular case, Hanlon's Razor is apt: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence" And again, shame on the CCP for arresting the (now tragically dead!) doctor and other people who first brought this virus to light and tried to warn people. The CCPs need for control over their population caused them to kill hundreds if not thousands of people and contributed significantly to a global pandemic.
keanzu 7y ago
> the banning of funerals Banning of large public gatherings of people potentially exposed to the virus. Sounds like a reasonable precaution.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  The quarantines already banned those in heavily infected areas. They specifically mentioned funerals though... which was odd.
zozbot234 7y ago
I'm not really seeing the "global" aspect to this. A huge majority of the numbers are in Wuhan or Hubei, and then much of the rest is just elsewhere in mainland China. Cases abroad are almost a rounding error by comparison. It's quite weird actually, it's like there's some factor we don't quite understand that has been limiting the virus's spread even before protective measures were taken.
- animal531 7y ago
  It can really go either way. But the numbers in other countries keep growing as well (although very slowly at the moment). But in the same vein you have to think that in China itself it also started as slowly. We might be screening at airports etc, but the long 2 week incubation period along with the lack of valid information about the virus (regarding its early detectability, spread etc) might be inflating our sense of comfort.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  If you look at the maps of infections there are some areas, frequented by Chinese tourists, that are not reporting data. Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia - none have been reporting data because they know that a panic will wreck their tourist industry. The Thai government even admitted that publicly - that they would not release data on the disease. The "good" news is that Coronaviruses are not great survivors in tropical climates, so when summer comes, the infections will abate - BUT we are still 8 weeks away from warmer weather (with a doubling every 5 days). The bad news is that if governments do not also stop flights out of Southeast Asia, then there will be a secondary wave of Coronavirus, and it will likely hit the Southern Hemisphere over the summer, and then the entire Northern Hemisphere this winter.
himinlomax 7y ago
It's a clear result of the Chinese Communist Party's censorious dictatorship. Believing them a priori is as foolish as believing conspiracy theorists.

alasdair_ 7y ago

The Tencent thing is definitely erroneous. The numbers “leaked” were just a transposition of the number of known cases transposed as “dead”. I absolutely hate that China’s powers that be decided to hush up the outbreak. Shame on them. But this specific case is just an error magnified by social media (which very fairly doesn’t believe the official party line either).

koheripbal 7y ago
Can you clarify what's being transposed in the Tencent leak? Here's the writeup: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
- alasdair_ 7y ago
  Sure. Let me start with a more general observation: those Tencent numbers imply a death rate of at least one in six. Yet when you look at figures from outside of China, we absolute do not have a 1:6 infection to death ratio in known cases from places without any CCP influence. As for the transposition: 154,023 was almost exactly the number of people being monitored for coronavirus. This was NOT the number of confirmed cases, just the people being monitored. 24,589 is almost exactly the number of confirmed cases, yet here it's reported as "deaths". In this particular case, Hanlon's Razor is apt: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence" And again, shame on the CCP for arresting the (now tragically dead!) doctor and other people who first brought this virus to light and tried to warn people. The CCPs need for control over their population caused them to kill hundreds if not thousands of people and contributed significantly to a global pandemic.

keanzu 7y ago

> the banning of funerals Banning of large public gatherings of people potentially exposed to the virus. Sounds like a reasonable precaution.

koheripbal 7y ago
The quarantines already banned those in heavily infected areas. They specifically mentioned funerals though... which was odd.

zozbot234 7y ago

I'm not really seeing the "global" aspect to this. A huge majority of the numbers are in Wuhan or Hubei, and then much of the rest is just elsewhere in mainland China. Cases abroad are almost a rounding error by comparison. It's quite weird actually, it's like there's some factor we don't quite understand that has been limiting the virus's spread even before protective measures were taken.

animal531 7y ago
It can really go either way. But the numbers in other countries keep growing as well (although very slowly at the moment). But in the same vein you have to think that in China itself it also started as slowly. We might be screening at airports etc, but the long 2 week incubation period along with the lack of valid information about the virus (regarding its early detectability, spread etc) might be inflating our sense of comfort.
koheripbal 7y ago
If you look at the maps of infections there are some areas, frequented by Chinese tourists, that are not reporting data. Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia - none have been reporting data because they know that a panic will wreck their tourist industry. The Thai government even admitted that publicly - that they would not release data on the disease. The "good" news is that Coronaviruses are not great survivors in tropical climates, so when summer comes, the infections will abate - BUT we are still 8 weeks away from warmer weather (with a doubling every 5 days). The bad news is that if governments do not also stop flights out of Southeast Asia, then there will be a secondary wave of Coronavirus, and it will likely hit the Southern Hemisphere over the summer, and then the entire Northern Hemisphere this winter.

himinlomax 7y ago

It's a clear result of the Chinese Communist Party's censorious dictatorship. Believing them a priori is as foolish as believing conspiracy theorists.