3 ms·
The denominator currently has a multi day head start vs the numerator. Exponential growth means the fraction will grow. Not to mention limits of testing and re
by beerandt 7y ago
The denominator currently has a multi day head start vs the numerator. Exponential growth means the fraction will grow.
Not to mention limits of testing and reporting at this point. Regardless, we're not at a point where your method of comparison is meaningful yet.
If we want to err the other way, you could look at deaths over deaths+ recoveries:
638/(638+1341)=32.2%
That, combined with the growth/spread rate and the fact that otherwise healthy 30-somethings are dying, means a potentially nasty outbreak. And that's based on taking the Chinese government at their word.