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I completely agree. I fail to see any plausible scenario where this doesn’t become a global pandemic in 2020. It seems like the best case is that it either beco
by ryanwaggoner 7y ago
I completely agree. I fail to see any plausible scenario where this doesn’t become a global pandemic in 2020. It seems like the best case is that it either becomes much less lethal as it spreads, and / or we slow it down enough to develop a vaccine. Failing that, I’m unclear on why any rational person thinks this is no big deal.
There’s no way China goes from 27k infected and it growing 15% per day to zero infections. It’s beyond containment at this point, they can’t stay on lockdown forever. And while it has barely spread beyond China, are we just going to wall off 1.4 billion people from the rest of humanity for the foreseeable future? Unlikely, probably impossible. So it seems like just a matter of time until it spreads globally, just like the flu, but much more deadly. And likely to overwhelm our medical infrastructure for the people who don’t die, many of which end up in critical condition.
I’m not panicking, but I’m concerned. Please, someone smart and well-informed, make the case for why this isn’t that big of a deal. (Hint: if you start by comparing it to total flu deaths instead of flu mortality rate, you’ve disqualified yourself).
- nate_meurer 7y agoI'm not the smart and well-informed someone you seek, but FWIW I suspect that the infection rate is vastly under-reported, simply because mild cases resolve without "official" notice. Deaths on the other hand are nearly always noticed, and although I'll totally buy the theory that the chinese government are under-reporting deaths, I think we'll ultimately find out that a far greater proportion of mild infections has gone unreported. All that to say, I have hope that this bug is less dangerous than it seems right now.