3 ms·

National mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

by keanzu 7y ago

National mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... What would you consider a high mortality rate? 2% lethality in healthy patients is significant and it is "so far". We don't know the true rate yet.

cjhopman 7y ago
The swine flu of 2009 had up to a 5% mortality rate in confirmed cases (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/). SARS was 10% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...) MERS is 35% (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html) The bird flu is 60% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza), though there's few cases and estimates of what it would actually be are lower, but still >15% (https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555 https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555)
- beerandt 7y ago
  The denominator currently has a multi day head start vs the numerator. Exponential growth means the fraction will grow. Not to mention limits of testing and reporting at this point. Regardless, we're not at a point where your method of comparison is meaningful yet. If we want to err the other way, you could look at deaths over deaths+ recoveries: 638/(638+1341)=32.2% That, combined with the growth/spread rate and the fact that otherwise healthy 30-somethings are dying, means a potentially nasty outbreak. And that's based on taking the Chinese government at their word.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  True. ...but the difference is that millions of people might contract this illness - unlike the other ones you mentioned.

by keanzu 7y ago

cjhopman 7y ago

The swine flu of 2009 had up to a 5% mortality rate in confirmed cases (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/). SARS was 10% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...) MERS is 35% (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html) The bird flu is 60% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza), though there's few cases and estimates of what it would actually be are lower, but still >15% (https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555 https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555)

beerandt 7y ago
The denominator currently has a multi day head start vs the numerator. Exponential growth means the fraction will grow. Not to mention limits of testing and reporting at this point. Regardless, we're not at a point where your method of comparison is meaningful yet. If we want to err the other way, you could look at deaths over deaths+ recoveries: 638/(638+1341)=32.2% That, combined with the growth/spread rate and the fact that otherwise healthy 30-somethings are dying, means a potentially nasty outbreak. And that's based on taking the Chinese government at their word.
koheripbal 7y ago
True. ...but the difference is that millions of people might contract this illness - unlike the other ones you mentioned.