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The Netflix Prize competition launched in 2006, before they had started streaming anything. The problem was to recommend a huge DVD-by-mail catalog to millions

The Netflix Prize competition launched in 2006, before they had started streaming anything. The problem was to recommend a huge DVD-by-mail catalog to millions of users. By the time the competition finished in 2009, streaming was already growing rapidly. Nowadays their DVD business is a small footnote to their streaming business. The streaming catalog is much smaller than the DVD catalog and the consequences for starting to stream a show/movie you don't like are much smaller; you can back out and immediately start something else. You don't have to wait days to return your unsatisfying DVD and get a different one in the mail. Netflix has ~6,000 items to recommend to streaming customers in the US [1]. This is about 6% as much content to recommend as the DVD-by-mail service has. Their streaming catalog size is actually shrinking over time [2]. Fine grained rating systems and better recommenders aren't going to move the needle much for Netflix's current business, because they now have a content availability problem much more than a discovery problem. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1013571/netflix-library-size-worldwide/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1013571/netflix-library-... [2] https://www.streamingobserver.com/netflix-movie-library-shrinking/ https://www.streamingobserver.com/netflix-movie-library-shri...

pjc50 7y ago
I'm sure there was a narrow window when you could stream seemingly every film, ancient and modern, legitimately. Then the studios twigged and had to kill it.
- philipkglass 7y ago
  I don't even mind paying on demand to stream a film. It's annoying and economically baffling when you can't stream a film even if you have your credit card in hand, ready to pay. Last weekend I tried to find To Live and Die in L.A. -- from the 1980s but hardly obscure. I couldn't find it legitimately available to stream anywhere, for any amount of money. I even tried Kanopy, which has been my go-to source for films I can't find on paid streaming services, but they didn't have it either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Live_and_Die_in_L.A._(film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Live_and_Die_in_L.A._(film)
  - creeble 7y ago
    And you sometimes can't even rent movies that you saw on Netflix as recently as a couple of years ago. "Page Eight" was a great little spy movie with Bill Nighy and Rachel Weisz on Netflix. Now you can't rent from anywhere, for any price afaict. How does this optimize revenues for the studios?
    - pjc50 7y ago
      The only thing I can think of is a mind share argument: they want you to watch the latest blockbuster instead. The Disney Vault is the cynical endpoint of this line of thinking.
      - dredmorbius 7y ago
        Howso?
    - dublinben 7y ago
      This movie may be available through Hoopla in association with your local library.[0] It appears to be distributed in the US by PBS which doesn't have the best streaming availability. [0] https://www.hoopladigital.com/title/10085700 https://www.hoopladigital.com/title/10085700
    - getpost 7y ago
      It’s on Amazon, in the US at least, free with Prime.
  - emmelaich 7y ago
    Two films that I can't get on streaming or DVD are * The Name of the Rose * The Draughtmans Contract I spose I'll have to find them at an old fashioned DVD store, eg. https://filmclub.com.au/ https://filmclub.com.au/
    - nkurz 7y ago
      These appear to be available at dvd.netflix.com: The Name of the Rose (2019 series): https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/81093444 https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/81093444 The Name of the Rose (1986 movie): https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/70000552 https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/70000552 The Draughtsman's Contract: https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Draughtsman-s-Contract/459613 https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Draughtsman-s-Contract/459... Your spelling of "Draught[s]man" might have misled you for that one. It's a little sad that Netflix's search returned no results for such a close spelling. I'm not sure why you didn't see Name of the Rose. (although maybe from your example link you are in Australia and thus don't have access to Netflix DVD?)
2bitencryption 7y ago
Extremely interesting. Thanks for the reply and sources.
slg 7y ago
You are certainly right about Netflix's catalog decreasing, but that doesn't explain why Netflix's recommendations have been downgraded over time. I am reminded of the show Tuca & Bertie. It was a new Netflix original from the same people who created BoJack Horseman. You would think it would be obvious to surface the new show to anyone who watched the old show. Except that never happened. The show's creator even commented that Netflix's algorithm never recommended her her own show. She had to manually search to find it. The only real explanation is that Netflix believes it is more important for customers to think the catalog is large rather than the catalog is good. Netflix wants people to spend 10 minutes scrolling through crap to find something to watch instead of simply listing all the recommended content at the top and for people to notice that there are only a few good options.
- ljm 7y ago
  Netflix’s recommended content has become so terrible outside things I want like Better Call Saul or Mindhunter, that I’ve cancelled the sub. Most of what they push to the top is straight garbage. Really badly written stuff. Meanwhile I can pay the same for amazon and get more Picard, Mr Robot, The Expanse... and if the TV sucks there are plenty of movies on rotation.
  - DoofusOfDeath 7y ago
    I reached the same conclusion today. When I logged back in to disable the autoplay-previews, it occurred to me that the only reason I have a subscription still is to catch the remaining Sherlock (with Cumberbatch) episodes that I haven't yet seen. But I realized they might also be found elsewhere, and it turns out they're carried by Amazon Prime Video. That was the last straw for my Netflix subscription. I'm amazed by how thoroughly Netflix has changed me from a lover to a hater of their service and company in recent years. It's not just a matter of cancelling because they don't have a catalog I care about. It's that I feel lied to and manipulated as well.
- lowtolerance 7y ago
  What I hate about Netflix’s recommendations is how if you watch any standup comedy special, Netflix decides that you’re a huge, undiscerning standup fan and recommends all standup comedy to you, forever.
mithr 7y ago
I think they have both. Super anecdotal, but just last week I randomly discovered Altered Carbon through an online "best of decade" list. It's exactly in my wheelhouse. I watched it and loved every minute. It's been out for ~2 YEARS, and don't recall Netflix ever recommending it to me -- certainly not recently, when I've actively been looking for new things to watch. This makes me wonder just how much other content they do have that would really appeal to me. It feels like rather than perhaps not spend _quite as much_ time on perfecting their recommendation algorithm, they've just completely given up. For a while now, the only real content that Netflix successfully "recommends" to me are things that I've already started watching.

pjc50 7y ago

I'm sure there was a narrow window when you could stream seemingly every film, ancient and modern, legitimately. Then the studios twigged and had to kill it.

philipkglass 7y ago
I don't even mind paying on demand to stream a film. It's annoying and economically baffling when you can't stream a film even if you have your credit card in hand, ready to pay. Last weekend I tried to find To Live and Die in L.A. -- from the 1980s but hardly obscure. I couldn't find it legitimately available to stream anywhere, for any amount of money. I even tried Kanopy, which has been my go-to source for films I can't find on paid streaming services, but they didn't have it either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Live_and_Die_in_L.A._(film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Live_and_Die_in_L.A._(film)
- creeble 7y ago
  And you sometimes can't even rent movies that you saw on Netflix as recently as a couple of years ago. "Page Eight" was a great little spy movie with Bill Nighy and Rachel Weisz on Netflix. Now you can't rent from anywhere, for any price afaict. How does this optimize revenues for the studios?
  - pjc50 7y ago
    The only thing I can think of is a mind share argument: they want you to watch the latest blockbuster instead. The Disney Vault is the cynical endpoint of this line of thinking.
    - dredmorbius 7y ago
      Howso?
  - dublinben 7y ago
    This movie may be available through Hoopla in association with your local library.[0] It appears to be distributed in the US by PBS which doesn't have the best streaming availability. [0] https://www.hoopladigital.com/title/10085700 https://www.hoopladigital.com/title/10085700
  - getpost 7y ago
    It’s on Amazon, in the US at least, free with Prime.
- emmelaich 7y ago
  Two films that I can't get on streaming or DVD are * The Name of the Rose * The Draughtmans Contract I spose I'll have to find them at an old fashioned DVD store, eg. https://filmclub.com.au/ https://filmclub.com.au/
  - nkurz 7y ago
    These appear to be available at dvd.netflix.com: The Name of the Rose (2019 series): https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/81093444 https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/81093444 The Name of the Rose (1986 movie): https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/70000552 https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Name-of-the-Rose/70000552 The Draughtsman's Contract: https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Draughtsman-s-Contract/459613 https://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/The-Draughtsman-s-Contract/459... Your spelling of "Draught[s]man" might have misled you for that one. It's a little sad that Netflix's search returned no results for such a close spelling. I'm not sure why you didn't see Name of the Rose. (although maybe from your example link you are in Australia and thus don't have access to Netflix DVD?)

2bitencryption 7y ago

Extremely interesting. Thanks for the reply and sources.

slg 7y ago

You are certainly right about Netflix's catalog decreasing, but that doesn't explain why Netflix's recommendations have been downgraded over time. I am reminded of the show Tuca & Bertie. It was a new Netflix original from the same people who created BoJack Horseman. You would think it would be obvious to surface the new show to anyone who watched the old show. Except that never happened. The show's creator even commented that Netflix's algorithm never recommended her her own show. She had to manually search to find it. The only real explanation is that Netflix believes it is more important for customers to think the catalog is large rather than the catalog is good. Netflix wants people to spend 10 minutes scrolling through crap to find something to watch instead of simply listing all the recommended content at the top and for people to notice that there are only a few good options.

ljm 7y ago
Netflix’s recommended content has become so terrible outside things I want like Better Call Saul or Mindhunter, that I’ve cancelled the sub. Most of what they push to the top is straight garbage. Really badly written stuff. Meanwhile I can pay the same for amazon and get more Picard, Mr Robot, The Expanse... and if the TV sucks there are plenty of movies on rotation.
- DoofusOfDeath 7y ago
  I reached the same conclusion today. When I logged back in to disable the autoplay-previews, it occurred to me that the only reason I have a subscription still is to catch the remaining Sherlock (with Cumberbatch) episodes that I haven't yet seen. But I realized they might also be found elsewhere, and it turns out they're carried by Amazon Prime Video. That was the last straw for my Netflix subscription. I'm amazed by how thoroughly Netflix has changed me from a lover to a hater of their service and company in recent years. It's not just a matter of cancelling because they don't have a catalog I care about. It's that I feel lied to and manipulated as well.
lowtolerance 7y ago
What I hate about Netflix’s recommendations is how if you watch any standup comedy special, Netflix decides that you’re a huge, undiscerning standup fan and recommends all standup comedy to you, forever.

mithr 7y ago

I think they have both. Super anecdotal, but just last week I randomly discovered Altered Carbon through an online "best of decade" list. It's exactly in my wheelhouse. I watched it and loved every minute. It's been out for ~2 YEARS, and don't recall Netflix ever recommending it to me -- certainly not recently, when I've actively been looking for new things to watch. This makes me wonder just how much other content they do have that would really appeal to me. It feels like rather than perhaps not spend _quite as much_ time on perfecting their recommendation algorithm, they've just completely given up. For a while now, the only real content that Netflix successfully "recommends" to me are things that I've already started watching.