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Whistleblower Dr. Li Wenliang confirmed dead of coronavirus at 34

122 points by danso 7y ago

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
sillysaurusx 7y ago
567 deaths, 1,341 recovered, 28,403 cases. It's remarkable that humanity can globally track such things. He was only a few years older than me. How does the coronavirus kill? I tried searching, but the first five results were all paywalled. I'm curious about what specifically makes the coronavirus deadly compared to the flu.
- keanzu 7y ago
  Studies from patients who died from SARS coronavirus showed the virus caused damage to not only the lungs, but also other organs in the body. Early research suggests the Wuhan coronavirus can also damage other organs, including the kidneys. The Wuhan coronavirus appears to cause pneumonia in two ways: when the virus takes hold in the lungs, and through secondary bacterial infections, however, the first way appears to be more common. Although it can be difficult to determine whether organ damage from the Wuhan coronavirus is a result of direct viral infection or indirect “collateral damage” from the immune system, initial reports suggested around 11% of people severely ill with the Wuhan coronavirus experienced sepsis with multi-organ failure. https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-cause-severe-illness-130864 https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-c... I am not a medical practitioner nor researcher and have no understanding of the virus. I make no representation as to the veracity of this source lacking the means to independently verify it.
  - sillysaurusx 7y ago
    Fascinating. The immune response seems to cause harm, so the logical conclusion might be to try to suppress it somehow. But the article points out that 100 attempts at dampening immune response have all failed: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/24581450/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/24581450/
    - bgee 7y ago
      When battling with SARS, large dose of steroids was used as part of the treatment to suppress immune system [0]. But there are many side-effects (e.g. lots of SARS survivors in China need hip replacement [1]). [0]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC420028/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC420028/ [1]: https://www.scmp.com/article/433797/28-sars-survivors-have-bone-disease https://www.scmp.com/article/433797/28-sars-survivors-have-b...
  - jnwatson 7y ago
    It is hard to square 11% “sepsis with multiple organ failure” with only 2% reported fatality rate. Somebody isn’t telling the truth, and I’d bet it is the Chinese government.
    - RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
      > Of the first 99 people with severe infection, three-quarters had pneumonia involving both lungs. Around 14% appeared to have lung damage caused by the immune system, while 11% suffered from multi-organ system failure, or sepsis. The 11% with multiple organ failure is referring to the first 99 people with severe infection. The 2% reported fatality rate is for everyone that acquires the virus.
      - koheripbal 7y ago
        No - 2% is only for those sick enough to have the test administered. Many are not even being checked because their symptoms don't warrant hospitalization.
    - keanzu 7y ago
      "around 11% of people severely ill" Many of the infected are not "severely ill".
- avtar 7y ago
  "The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day." -- https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 The source is Taiwan News so probably not impartial.
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    The official numbers out of China made absolutely no sense from day one. The number of confirmed cases was in the low hundreds, and yet there were confirmed cases popping up all around the world. That's simply statistically impossible. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't really have over a million people infected by now.
- aaomidi 7y ago
  The longer a disease takes to show symptoms means it's had a longer time to multiply inside your body. Once your immune system detects it, you're going to get the standard flu/cold symptoms (fever, runny nose, etc). During this period your body is actively losing its protection due to putting so much resources into fighting the viral infection in your body. Other deadlier diseases can now enter your body and essentially hide behind the fact that your immune system can't respond to everything at once. So you get more complications as you're sick for longer. The viral infection itself does have an impact on organs, specifically the lungs, but it's usually secondary complications that kill.
- TwoNineA 7y ago
  You actually believe those numbers? They are straight out of Winnie the Poo’s office ... a brutal dictator.
- skmurphy 7y ago
  It directly infects the lungs, it's essentially a viral pneumonia. It can kill by reducing lung function or enabling sepsis or other opportunistic infections that can enter through damaged lung tissue. For more information the most recent dozen or so videos by John Campbell at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg will take you through material published in peer reviewed medical journals that explain transmission models and an in depth review of some early cases.
- topmonk 7y ago
  The numbers are ridiculous. What gives it away, is that if you plot them onto a graph, they almost exactly match what an algorithm would predict, unchanging regardless of quarantines, blockades, etc. that have been enacted. The further kicker is that the model it aligns to is quadratic where an actual virus spread is exponential. So, the Chinese are not only making up numbers and following an ideal model exactly but can't even figure out to use a valid ideal model to generate those fake numbers from. See more here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbvibANxARg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbvibANxARg
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    Right, but that is because there is a lag in the data. Quarantines have only started recently.
    - topmonk 7y ago
      Huh? They started quarantining patients on January 1st, and fully quarantined Wuhan on January 22. And that says nothing for why the data matches up exactly to an ideal model and furthermore that model (quadratic) isn't correct for the spread of viruses (which is exponential). If you look at data from outside of China, you can see a regular jagged line full of noise which you would expect for real data. The data from China stands out like a mannequin in a lineup.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  Similar to SARS and the 1918 Flu. Cytokine storms. Basically your immune system suffocates you by sending too many immune cells to the infection.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
The coronavirus is devastating for the Chinese Communist Party. Basically, the deal with the populace was people gave up their freedom in exchange for competent government and economic growth. In the last several decades, this was seen as a good deal, by a lot of people both inside and outside China. China had massive economic growth and modernization. Now, however, the handling of coronavirus was a huge blow to the perception of competency of the government, and is likely to have big economic implications as well, thereby threatening the foundations of this deal.
- tvanantwerp 7y ago
  I don't know that the populace has ever perceived the government as particularly competent. Powerful and dangerous if you cross them, sure--but competent?
  - dwheeler 7y ago
    My understanding is that they've been viewed by many of their populace as competent in gaining substantial economic growth. Many other countries have had far less growth than China in the last few decades.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- koheripbal 7y ago
  I'm not so sure. Could a western country initiate entire city-wide quarantines at the drop of a hat? Could a western country pull sick people off the streets and forcibly put them into quarantine centers? Unilaterally shut down schools, factories, and transportation at a whim? Maybe. ...but, to be honest, despite their clear dishonestly about the number of infected/dying, they are also clearly taking some definitive actions to contain this.
  - tal8d 7y ago
    The propensity for lying, in order to protect the power structure, results in a major constraint on future options - requiring more lies. It is a vicious cycle that completely obliterates any potential strong-arm advantage a single party system may have. If for no other reason: this is why you don't lie, you have no idea how badly you screw your future self. Also, and I'm looking at you World Health Organization, anyone trying to soften the blowback from lying suffers major damage to their credibility.
monadic2 7y ago
Why does this media make such a big deal about a virus with such a low mortality rate?
- danso 7y ago
  What threshold of mortality rate do you think should justify media coverage?
  - monadic2 7y ago
    It’s not the media coverage itself I am concerned with, it’s the lack of historical context with which the reporting is presented. What impression does it leave if it is presented as simply a communicable disease coming from china?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- asdz 7y ago
  mortality rate is consider low compare to other major outbreak but it's infectious rate is the highest so far.
  - keanzu 7y ago
    > its infectious rate Do you have numbers or a source for that?
- keanzu 7y ago
  National mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... What would you consider a high mortality rate? 2% lethality in healthy patients is significant and it is "so far". We don't know the true rate yet.
  - cjhopman 7y ago
    The swine flu of 2009 had up to a 5% mortality rate in confirmed cases (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/). SARS was 10% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...) MERS is 35% (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html) The bird flu is 60% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza), though there's few cases and estimates of what it would actually be are lower, but still >15% (https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555 https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555)
hanoz 7y ago
I'm concerned about this virus. Most people I talk to (in the UK) think it's being over-hyped but I can't help but think it's being under-played. The virus seems, in my completely inexpert assessment, to occupy a sort of sweet spot in a terms of virulence, mortality and incubation period, for wreaking maximum damage. Based on its current trajectory I can't see any reason to believe the whole of the world won't be affected on the same scale as Wuhan at some point this year. Am I right to be concerned, and if so what should I be doing about it?
- keanzu 7y ago
  > what should I be doing about it? There is currently no vaccine to prevent 2019-nCoV infection. The best way to prevent infection is to avoid being exposed to this virus. However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing. If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands. Avoid close contact with people who are sick. Stay home when you are sick. Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-t...
  - beamatronic 7y ago
    Should I stop eating the free lunch buffet at work?
    - tandr 7y ago
      Yes. And generally avoiding big gatherings of people is not a bad idea.
    - 7y ago
nkurz 7y ago
You know how we look back at the state of medical knowledge from a couple hundred years ago, and it all seems so primitive? Contagion was explained by miasma rather than germs, leeches and trepans were best practices, and even basic surgical sanitation was an uphill battle. From our point of view, they didn't even understand the basics! Easily cured diseases were just left to run their course! Events like this are a reminder that there is still so much that is beyond the abilities of current medicine. As a prominent doctor, he almost certainly got the best care that is currently available, and yet he still died from a simple virus. Our ability to treat viruses today is where our ability to treat bacterial infections was 100 years ago. We knew that germs existed, but penicillin was still a decade away. The standard of care was to keep the patient well hydrated and hope that they don't die. Similarly, we know today that viruses exist, but in most cases the best care we can offer is to keep the patient hydrated and hope that they don't die. With sufficient luck, in a hundred years we'll have progressed to the point that people look at us and marvel: "They didn't even know the basics! When people contracted a virus, there was nothing they could do but let the disease run its course!"
- koheripbal 7y ago
  ...and yet, we are still so much further ahead than we were even only 20 years ago. This virus was caught by the early detection mechanisms setup after SARS, and it was DNA sequenced from samples taken from some of the first victims within a couple of weeks - pointing to a near match with a sample collected in 2014 in a cave from bat poop as part of a "preparatory program" also setup after SARS. New sequencing tech has allowed the global distribution of test kits, allowing us to have thousands of confirmed cases shown to us in real time - globally. Vaccines are already in development and the FDA is prepared to fast-track their testing under procedures, you guessed it, updated after SARS. ...and yet, this turned into a global outbreak that we're desperately trying to stop from becoming a global pandemic. Sadly, Chinese prosperity has meant prolific Chinese tourist industries which helped spread the disease robustly throughout South-east Asia. And so there's a very real possibility that, unlike SARS, this new Coronavirus will become endemic and return each year like the seasonal flu, possibly causing hundreds of thousands of dead per year until a vaccine is deployed. Based on projected numbers, it seems like it has spread far beyond our ability to contain it. So while it certainly could have been worse, had we not been as prepared - I like to think that when this happens again 20 years from now, we'll be far better prepared. I'll have to learn to use those three sea shells.
koheripbal 7y ago
I think what triggers an enormous amount of panic are the stories from Chinese social media - contradicting official Chinese reports. I cannot tell what's true and what's hyperbole... The government numbers don't seem so bad - but then some of the quarantine measures seem oddly harsh if the numbers were true. Stories of Tencent "accidentally" leaking numbers online that are 10x what the government is reporting - stories of crematoriums being inundated with corpses - pictures of death certificates omitting the cause - the banning of funerals - videos of women being pulled off the street to be forcibly transported to a quarantine center (that one was particularly concerning) - etc... The numbers from China are suspect of course - it's statistically hard to imagine such a global contagion last week with the small number of confirmed cases the Chinese gov't was publishing. I don't want to overreact... but I also don't want to underreact.
- alasdair_ 7y ago
  The Tencent thing is definitely erroneous. The numbers “leaked” were just a transposition of the number of known cases transposed as “dead”. I absolutely hate that China’s powers that be decided to hush up the outbreak. Shame on them. But this specific case is just an error magnified by social media (which very fairly doesn’t believe the official party line either).
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    Can you clarify what's being transposed in the Tencent leak? Here's the writeup: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
    - alasdair_ 7y ago
      Sure. Let me start with a more general observation: those Tencent numbers imply a death rate of at least one in six. Yet when you look at figures from outside of China, we absolute do not have a 1:6 infection to death ratio in known cases from places without any CCP influence. As for the transposition: 154,023 was almost exactly the number of people being monitored for coronavirus. This was NOT the number of confirmed cases, just the people being monitored. 24,589 is almost exactly the number of confirmed cases, yet here it's reported as "deaths". In this particular case, Hanlon's Razor is apt: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence" And again, shame on the CCP for arresting the (now tragically dead!) doctor and other people who first brought this virus to light and tried to warn people. The CCPs need for control over their population caused them to kill hundreds if not thousands of people and contributed significantly to a global pandemic.
divbzero 7y ago
First, condolences to Dr. Li’s family. As we speak of epidemiology and statistics, let’s not forget that every single “case” is an individual with family and friends, and behind each individual are doctors, nurses, and caretakers who risk their own health to help another. Second, as noted by nkurz the contrast between bacterial and viral treatments is striking. Whereas we expect bacterial infections to be treatable and are alarmed when they aren’t (MRSA), we expect viral infections to simply run their course except for the few instances where they’re treatable (HIV, influenza) or even (gasp!) curable (HCV). We explain away the sad state of antivirals by pointing to the inherent biochemical challenges of fighting viruses [1] but maybe what we really need is a breakthrough — perhaps a miraculous fortuitous “penicillin” moment — so 100 years from now antivirals will also be a matter of course. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug#Approaches_by_life_cycle_stage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug#Approaches_by_l...
anonytrary 7y ago
The fact that the hospital lied about Dr. Li Wenliang dying goes to show you how absolutely dystopian China is. How afraid (or corrupt) do you have to be to continue to claim someone who died was alive?
- Jommi 7y ago
  Are you referring to this part? >The announcement capped several chaotic hours in which Chinese media first reported Li’s death, only for the hospital to respond that Li was alive, though in critical condition. >Li Wenliang has died, Wuhan Central Hospital confirmed early Friday morning, hours after it initially denied reports of his death. Where here do you see clear evidence or even indication of deceit? If someone is in critical condition, that does not mean they are dead. Announcing someone dead just hours after saying someone is in critical condition is, actually, super super logical. I fear your comment might be quite guided by your unfamiliarity with China and xenophobic touch. Please do take some more time to reflect before posting similar comments again. Thank you.
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
    It's pretty clear the side of history the CPC is on. You only have to look to their concentration camps and what's been happening in Hong Kong. They can't be compared to Western democracies, they are closer to Nazi Germany.
    - Jommi 7y ago
      Not sure what you are aiming for with this response, what part of my comment did you try to respond to? I'm just trying to wrap my head around this comment and see how I could respond. Thanks!
      - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
        I was addressing your accusation against the GP. > your unfamiliarity with China and xenophobic touch. I would argue that he is very familiar with China and his views are not xenophobic but purely rooted in philosophical differences with the Communist Party of China.
whoevercares 7y ago
Interestingly and rarely, instead of covering up or Force deleting the posts, this time the Central government treat this seriously with several investigation announced and official mourning. This news does go viral among Chinese internet and triggered huge criticism of the government so it might be impractical to censor it. All in all, it could be a good thing to CCP since they showed iron hand in the right way this time
ashwinaj 7y ago
> Chinese social media has been awash with anger over the death of the whistle-blower How about going out to protest? Oh wait, you can't...bravo for your virtue signalling.

122 points by danso 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

567 deaths, 1,341 recovered, 28,403 cases. It's remarkable that humanity can globally track such things. He was only a few years older than me. How does the coronavirus kill? I tried searching, but the first five results were all paywalled. I'm curious about what specifically makes the coronavirus deadly compared to the flu.

keanzu 7y ago
Studies from patients who died from SARS coronavirus showed the virus caused damage to not only the lungs, but also other organs in the body. Early research suggests the Wuhan coronavirus can also damage other organs, including the kidneys. The Wuhan coronavirus appears to cause pneumonia in two ways: when the virus takes hold in the lungs, and through secondary bacterial infections, however, the first way appears to be more common. Although it can be difficult to determine whether organ damage from the Wuhan coronavirus is a result of direct viral infection or indirect “collateral damage” from the immune system, initial reports suggested around 11% of people severely ill with the Wuhan coronavirus experienced sepsis with multi-organ failure. https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-cause-severe-illness-130864 https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-c... I am not a medical practitioner nor researcher and have no understanding of the virus. I make no representation as to the veracity of this source lacking the means to independently verify it.
- sillysaurusx 7y ago
  Fascinating. The immune response seems to cause harm, so the logical conclusion might be to try to suppress it somehow. But the article points out that 100 attempts at dampening immune response have all failed: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/24581450/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/24581450/
  - bgee 7y ago
    When battling with SARS, large dose of steroids was used as part of the treatment to suppress immune system [0]. But there are many side-effects (e.g. lots of SARS survivors in China need hip replacement [1]). [0]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC420028/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC420028/ [1]: https://www.scmp.com/article/433797/28-sars-survivors-have-bone-disease https://www.scmp.com/article/433797/28-sars-survivors-have-b...
- jnwatson 7y ago
  It is hard to square 11% “sepsis with multiple organ failure” with only 2% reported fatality rate. Somebody isn’t telling the truth, and I’d bet it is the Chinese government.
  - RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
    > Of the first 99 people with severe infection, three-quarters had pneumonia involving both lungs. Around 14% appeared to have lung damage caused by the immune system, while 11% suffered from multi-organ system failure, or sepsis. The 11% with multiple organ failure is referring to the first 99 people with severe infection. The 2% reported fatality rate is for everyone that acquires the virus.
    - koheripbal 7y ago
      No - 2% is only for those sick enough to have the test administered. Many are not even being checked because their symptoms don't warrant hospitalization.
  - keanzu 7y ago
    "around 11% of people severely ill" Many of the infected are not "severely ill".
avtar 7y ago
"The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day." -- https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 The source is Taiwan News so probably not impartial.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  The official numbers out of China made absolutely no sense from day one. The number of confirmed cases was in the low hundreds, and yet there were confirmed cases popping up all around the world. That's simply statistically impossible. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't really have over a million people infected by now.
aaomidi 7y ago
The longer a disease takes to show symptoms means it's had a longer time to multiply inside your body. Once your immune system detects it, you're going to get the standard flu/cold symptoms (fever, runny nose, etc). During this period your body is actively losing its protection due to putting so much resources into fighting the viral infection in your body. Other deadlier diseases can now enter your body and essentially hide behind the fact that your immune system can't respond to everything at once. So you get more complications as you're sick for longer. The viral infection itself does have an impact on organs, specifically the lungs, but it's usually secondary complications that kill.
TwoNineA 7y ago
You actually believe those numbers? They are straight out of Winnie the Poo’s office ... a brutal dictator.
skmurphy 7y ago
It directly infects the lungs, it's essentially a viral pneumonia. It can kill by reducing lung function or enabling sepsis or other opportunistic infections that can enter through damaged lung tissue. For more information the most recent dozen or so videos by John Campbell at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg will take you through material published in peer reviewed medical journals that explain transmission models and an in depth review of some early cases.
topmonk 7y ago
The numbers are ridiculous. What gives it away, is that if you plot them onto a graph, they almost exactly match what an algorithm would predict, unchanging regardless of quarantines, blockades, etc. that have been enacted. The further kicker is that the model it aligns to is quadratic where an actual virus spread is exponential. So, the Chinese are not only making up numbers and following an ideal model exactly but can't even figure out to use a valid ideal model to generate those fake numbers from. See more here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbvibANxARg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jbvibANxARg
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Right, but that is because there is a lag in the data. Quarantines have only started recently.
  - topmonk 7y ago
    Huh? They started quarantining patients on January 1st, and fully quarantined Wuhan on January 22. And that says nothing for why the data matches up exactly to an ideal model and furthermore that model (quadratic) isn't correct for the spread of viruses (which is exponential). If you look at data from outside of China, you can see a regular jagged line full of noise which you would expect for real data. The data from China stands out like a mannequin in a lineup.
s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
Similar to SARS and the 1918 Flu. Cytokine storms. Basically your immune system suffocates you by sending too many immune cells to the infection.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago

The coronavirus is devastating for the Chinese Communist Party. Basically, the deal with the populace was people gave up their freedom in exchange for competent government and economic growth. In the last several decades, this was seen as a good deal, by a lot of people both inside and outside China. China had massive economic growth and modernization. Now, however, the handling of coronavirus was a huge blow to the perception of competency of the government, and is likely to have big economic implications as well, thereby threatening the foundations of this deal.

tvanantwerp 7y ago
I don't know that the populace has ever perceived the government as particularly competent. Powerful and dangerous if you cross them, sure--but competent?
- dwheeler 7y ago
  My understanding is that they've been viewed by many of their populace as competent in gaining substantial economic growth. Many other countries have had far less growth than China in the last few decades.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
koheripbal 7y ago
I'm not so sure. Could a western country initiate entire city-wide quarantines at the drop of a hat? Could a western country pull sick people off the streets and forcibly put them into quarantine centers? Unilaterally shut down schools, factories, and transportation at a whim? Maybe. ...but, to be honest, despite their clear dishonestly about the number of infected/dying, they are also clearly taking some definitive actions to contain this.
- tal8d 7y ago
  The propensity for lying, in order to protect the power structure, results in a major constraint on future options - requiring more lies. It is a vicious cycle that completely obliterates any potential strong-arm advantage a single party system may have. If for no other reason: this is why you don't lie, you have no idea how badly you screw your future self. Also, and I'm looking at you World Health Organization, anyone trying to soften the blowback from lying suffers major damage to their credibility.

monadic2 7y ago

Why does this media make such a big deal about a virus with such a low mortality rate?

danso 7y ago
What threshold of mortality rate do you think should justify media coverage?
- monadic2 7y ago
  It’s not the media coverage itself I am concerned with, it’s the lack of historical context with which the reporting is presented. What impression does it leave if it is presented as simply a communicable disease coming from china?
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
asdz 7y ago
mortality rate is consider low compare to other major outbreak but it's infectious rate is the highest so far.
- keanzu 7y ago
  > its infectious rate Do you have numbers or a source for that?
keanzu 7y ago
National mortality rate is 2.1% of confirmed cases. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... What would you consider a high mortality rate? 2% lethality in healthy patients is significant and it is "so far". We don't know the true rate yet.
- cjhopman 7y ago
  The swine flu of 2009 had up to a 5% mortality rate in confirmed cases (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/). SARS was 10% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...) MERS is 35% (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/clinical-features.html) The bird flu is 60% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza), though there's few cases and estimates of what it would actually be are lower, but still >15% (https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555 https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555)

hanoz 7y ago

I'm concerned about this virus. Most people I talk to (in the UK) think it's being over-hyped but I can't help but think it's being under-played. The virus seems, in my completely inexpert assessment, to occupy a sort of sweet spot in a terms of virulence, mortality and incubation period, for wreaking maximum damage. Based on its current trajectory I can't see any reason to believe the whole of the world won't be affected on the same scale as Wuhan at some point this year. Am I right to be concerned, and if so what should I be doing about it?

keanzu 7y ago
> what should I be doing about it? There is currently no vaccine to prevent 2019-nCoV infection. The best way to prevent infection is to avoid being exposed to this virus. However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, including: Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing. If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty. Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands. Avoid close contact with people who are sick. Stay home when you are sick. Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash. Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a regular household cleaning spray or wipe. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-t...
- beamatronic 7y ago
  Should I stop eating the free lunch buffet at work?
  - tandr 7y ago
    Yes. And generally avoiding big gatherings of people is not a bad idea.
  - 7y ago

nkurz 7y ago

You know how we look back at the state of medical knowledge from a couple hundred years ago, and it all seems so primitive? Contagion was explained by miasma rather than germs, leeches and trepans were best practices, and even basic surgical sanitation was an uphill battle. From our point of view, they didn't even understand the basics! Easily cured diseases were just left to run their course! Events like this are a reminder that there is still so much that is beyond the abilities of current medicine. As a prominent doctor, he almost certainly got the best care that is currently available, and yet he still died from a simple virus. Our ability to treat viruses today is where our ability to treat bacterial infections was 100 years ago. We knew that germs existed, but penicillin was still a decade away. The standard of care was to keep the patient well hydrated and hope that they don't die. Similarly, we know today that viruses exist, but in most cases the best care we can offer is to keep the patient hydrated and hope that they don't die. With sufficient luck, in a hundred years we'll have progressed to the point that people look at us and marvel: "They didn't even know the basics! When people contracted a virus, there was nothing they could do but let the disease run its course!"

koheripbal 7y ago
...and yet, we are still so much further ahead than we were even only 20 years ago. This virus was caught by the early detection mechanisms setup after SARS, and it was DNA sequenced from samples taken from some of the first victims within a couple of weeks - pointing to a near match with a sample collected in 2014 in a cave from bat poop as part of a "preparatory program" also setup after SARS. New sequencing tech has allowed the global distribution of test kits, allowing us to have thousands of confirmed cases shown to us in real time - globally. Vaccines are already in development and the FDA is prepared to fast-track their testing under procedures, you guessed it, updated after SARS. ...and yet, this turned into a global outbreak that we're desperately trying to stop from becoming a global pandemic. Sadly, Chinese prosperity has meant prolific Chinese tourist industries which helped spread the disease robustly throughout South-east Asia. And so there's a very real possibility that, unlike SARS, this new Coronavirus will become endemic and return each year like the seasonal flu, possibly causing hundreds of thousands of dead per year until a vaccine is deployed. Based on projected numbers, it seems like it has spread far beyond our ability to contain it. So while it certainly could have been worse, had we not been as prepared - I like to think that when this happens again 20 years from now, we'll be far better prepared. I'll have to learn to use those three sea shells.

koheripbal 7y ago

I think what triggers an enormous amount of panic are the stories from Chinese social media - contradicting official Chinese reports. I cannot tell what's true and what's hyperbole... The government numbers don't seem so bad - but then some of the quarantine measures seem oddly harsh if the numbers were true. Stories of Tencent "accidentally" leaking numbers online that are 10x what the government is reporting - stories of crematoriums being inundated with corpses - pictures of death certificates omitting the cause - the banning of funerals - videos of women being pulled off the street to be forcibly transported to a quarantine center (that one was particularly concerning) - etc... The numbers from China are suspect of course - it's statistically hard to imagine such a global contagion last week with the small number of confirmed cases the Chinese gov't was publishing. I don't want to overreact... but I also don't want to underreact.

alasdair_ 7y ago
The Tencent thing is definitely erroneous. The numbers “leaked” were just a transposition of the number of known cases transposed as “dead”. I absolutely hate that China’s powers that be decided to hush up the outbreak. Shame on them. But this specific case is just an error magnified by social media (which very fairly doesn’t believe the official party line either).
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Can you clarify what's being transposed in the Tencent leak? Here's the writeup: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594 https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
  - alasdair_ 7y ago
    Sure. Let me start with a more general observation: those Tencent numbers imply a death rate of at least one in six. Yet when you look at figures from outside of China, we absolute do not have a 1:6 infection to death ratio in known cases from places without any CCP influence. As for the transposition: 154,023 was almost exactly the number of people being monitored for coronavirus. This was NOT the number of confirmed cases, just the people being monitored. 24,589 is almost exactly the number of confirmed cases, yet here it's reported as "deaths". In this particular case, Hanlon's Razor is apt: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence" And again, shame on the CCP for arresting the (now tragically dead!) doctor and other people who first brought this virus to light and tried to warn people. The CCPs need for control over their population caused them to kill hundreds if not thousands of people and contributed significantly to a global pandemic.

divbzero 7y ago

First, condolences to Dr. Li’s family. As we speak of epidemiology and statistics, let’s not forget that every single “case” is an individual with family and friends, and behind each individual are doctors, nurses, and caretakers who risk their own health to help another. Second, as noted by nkurz the contrast between bacterial and viral treatments is striking. Whereas we expect bacterial infections to be treatable and are alarmed when they aren’t (MRSA), we expect viral infections to simply run their course except for the few instances where they’re treatable (HIV, influenza) or even (gasp!) curable (HCV). We explain away the sad state of antivirals by pointing to the inherent biochemical challenges of fighting viruses [1] but maybe what we really need is a breakthrough — perhaps a miraculous fortuitous “penicillin” moment — so 100 years from now antivirals will also be a matter of course. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug#Approaches_by_life_cycle_stage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiviral_drug#Approaches_by_l...

anonytrary 7y ago

The fact that the hospital lied about Dr. Li Wenliang dying goes to show you how absolutely dystopian China is. How afraid (or corrupt) do you have to be to continue to claim someone who died was alive?

Jommi 7y ago
Are you referring to this part? >The announcement capped several chaotic hours in which Chinese media first reported Li’s death, only for the hospital to respond that Li was alive, though in critical condition. >Li Wenliang has died, Wuhan Central Hospital confirmed early Friday morning, hours after it initially denied reports of his death. Where here do you see clear evidence or even indication of deceit? If someone is in critical condition, that does not mean they are dead. Announcing someone dead just hours after saying someone is in critical condition is, actually, super super logical. I fear your comment might be quite guided by your unfamiliarity with China and xenophobic touch. Please do take some more time to reflect before posting similar comments again. Thank you.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  It's pretty clear the side of history the CPC is on. You only have to look to their concentration camps and what's been happening in Hong Kong. They can't be compared to Western democracies, they are closer to Nazi Germany.
  - Jommi 7y ago
    Not sure what you are aiming for with this response, what part of my comment did you try to respond to? I'm just trying to wrap my head around this comment and see how I could respond. Thanks!
    - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
      I was addressing your accusation against the GP. > your unfamiliarity with China and xenophobic touch. I would argue that he is very familiar with China and his views are not xenophobic but purely rooted in philosophical differences with the Communist Party of China.

whoevercares 7y ago

Interestingly and rarely, instead of covering up or Force deleting the posts, this time the Central government treat this seriously with several investigation announced and official mourning. This news does go viral among Chinese internet and triggered huge criticism of the government so it might be impractical to censor it. All in all, it could be a good thing to CCP since they showed iron hand in the right way this time

ashwinaj 7y ago

> Chinese social media has been awash with anger over the death of the whistle-blower How about going out to protest? Oh wait, you can't...bravo for your virtue signalling.