2 ms·
> However, both of these estimates should be treated with great caution because not all patients have concluded their illness (ie, recovered or died) and the tr
by mstaoru 7y ago
> However, both of these estimates should be treated with great caution because not all patients have concluded their illness (ie, recovered or died) and the true number of infections and full disease spectrum are unknown.
Mathematically, the lethality of the virus is about 33% (565 died and 1163 recovered as of Feb 6th). Other 28,000+ cases are still in progress and they will resolve by recovery or death.
- sliken 7y agoYes, trick is that the tests are in short supply, paperwork load is high (reporting to city, state, and country authorities), and you need two positives tests to be considered definitely sick with corona virus. The result is that there's many 100k that are sick, but only 25k are "official". China is actively deleting photos, videos, and posts on social media trying to keep a lid on it.
- mstaoru 7y agoRight. They have also just admitted to BBC that they will not use the test kits on dead people, and their deaths are not counted towards the nCov count. That being said, I think speculating about "the real number" is quite useless at the moment, as China is still being actively quarantined (i.e. Hangzhou which is a "Tier-1.5 city" and home to Alibaba and is kind of a China's SV has closed down yesterday). PS: I live and currently in Shanghai.