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> IMHO nuclear winter is a far more likely end of civilization than global warming is. I think before we get to the nuclear winter stage we'll experience the e

> IMHO nuclear winter is a far more likely end of civilization than global warming is. I think before we get to the nuclear winter stage we'll experience the effects of a dirty bomb somewhere. This is much easier to do for an isolated (non state actor) group and has the same effect. Statistically this is overdue and only a question of time IMO.

eternalny1 7y ago
A "dirty bomb" is nothing but essentially dynamite and radioactive I-131. That isn't a huge problem. I had my thyroid gland removed 30 years ago. How? They give you a pill of radioactive iodine 131. Nothing simple iodine pills won't solve. That's nothing even close to a nuclear weapon.
godelski 7y ago
> Statistically this is overdue and only a question of time IMO. A dirty bomb is an act of terror and not much else. No, seriously. Likely builds aren't extremely dangerous, except to those constructing them. There's many ways that you could create these, including amassing fire alarms (there's issues with this). So you make a pipe bomb with some nuclear material in it and there you go. You have cancer, and now your pipebomb sets off geiger counters. Added terror, but little added in terms of damage. The truth is that setting off a pipebomb in a NYC dumpster is going to cause relatively the same amount of terror as if that same pipebomb had radioactive material. Difference is your suitability and cost, so why do it? We're not overdue. We've never seen one in use. We've only seen a handful constructed. It just doesn't make sense. Its added kill count is potentially +1 (you) and added terror is only slight. It is much cheaper and easier to just make a bunch of standard pipebombs and place them around a major city. But we aren't seeing that happen. Why? Because there just aren't that many terror attacks (sorry to those that supported the patriot act). [0] So sorry, we aren't overdue. We haven't seen one because they are just a dumb idea that is expensive and difficult to execute. [0] Between 9/11/01 and 10/15 there were 3066 Americans killed by terrorists. 2961 of those were on American soil. 2902 were on 9/11/01. https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_AmericanTerrorismDeaths_FactSheet_Oct2015.pdf https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_AmericanTerrorismDeaths...

eternalny1 7y ago

A "dirty bomb" is nothing but essentially dynamite and radioactive I-131. That isn't a huge problem. I had my thyroid gland removed 30 years ago. How? They give you a pill of radioactive iodine 131. Nothing simple iodine pills won't solve. That's nothing even close to a nuclear weapon.

godelski 7y ago

> Statistically this is overdue and only a question of time IMO. A dirty bomb is an act of terror and not much else. No, seriously. Likely builds aren't extremely dangerous, except to those constructing them. There's many ways that you could create these, including amassing fire alarms (there's issues with this). So you make a pipe bomb with some nuclear material in it and there you go. You have cancer, and now your pipebomb sets off geiger counters. Added terror, but little added in terms of damage. The truth is that setting off a pipebomb in a NYC dumpster is going to cause relatively the same amount of terror as if that same pipebomb had radioactive material. Difference is your suitability and cost, so why do it? We're not overdue. We've never seen one in use. We've only seen a handful constructed. It just doesn't make sense. Its added kill count is potentially +1 (you) and added terror is only slight. It is much cheaper and easier to just make a bunch of standard pipebombs and place them around a major city. But we aren't seeing that happen. Why? Because there just aren't that many terror attacks (sorry to those that supported the patriot act). [0] So sorry, we aren't overdue. We haven't seen one because they are just a dumb idea that is expensive and difficult to execute. [0] Between 9/11/01 and 10/15 there were 3066 Americans killed by terrorists. 2961 of those were on American soil. 2902 were on 9/11/01. https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_AmericanTerrorismDeaths_FactSheet_Oct2015.pdf https://www.start.umd.edu/pubs/START_AmericanTerrorismDeaths...