But the graph is also looking three days into the future, presumably based on fitting some model to the historical data. The output of any worthwhile model is a

But the graph is also looking three days into the future, presumably based on fitting some model to the historical data. The output of any worthwhile model is a probability distribution over possible future infection and death counts. As a consumer of that graph, I should be able to see not just the value just a model thinks is most likely, but at least some indication of how tight a bound the model is placing on those values.