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This is something that has been bothering me lately and I am going to use your comment to extrapolate on it. People keep comparing today to 1920's and 1930's a
by hpoe 7y ago
This is something that has been bothering me lately and I am going to use your comment to extrapolate on it.
People keep comparing today to 1920's and 1930's and worried about another Hitler or WWII, but the world isn't like the 1920s or 1930s the world today is like the 1890s and the 1900s that led up to WWI.
After WWII we had pretty much every nation broken and crippled economically and militarily, there was no major power left, Hitler's conquest of Europe had much less to do with Nazism and populism and much more to do with the fact that no one wanted to pick a fight because they remembered the horrors of WWI and were anxious to avoid it. It was a leaderless world the eventually turned into a bipolar world, with a world culture that was still advancing but not as quickly as it had been 20 or 30 years ago, breakthroughs were still being made but engineering wasn't advancing like it was during the height of the industrial revolution, most everyone was much less concerned with international politics and much more interested in national politics and solving immediate problems like food and shelter, ideas of equality and social justice held much less sway than ideas about how to get people back to work.
Compare that with the days leading up to WWI. In the world at this time you had the rise of multiple powers, a multi-polar world, England, France, Germany, the Ottomans, Russia, etc. The world had changed drastically from the last major conflict, and military thinking was entirely unequipped to handle it. The world was linked by huge networks of trade agreements and multinational corporations, and Nationalism was on the rise across all the major players. Every country believed that it was big enough to really play with the big boys. In addition tensions were heightened because every country was trying desperately to outpace it's neighbors in military invention resulting in widespread espionage, and spying, because everyone knew he with the best tech would win the next war. People had jobs and world prosperity was at record levels with fewer people in poverty than ever before and consequently more people literate and with opinions on ideas like economic theory, and what made a legitimate society.
Now we have today, we have new world powers rising, India, China, Russia has moved back to a position of considerable world rather than just regional power. The EU is consolidating, the South American economy is on the rise and Africa is starting to boom. Multinational corporations have vast supply chains that stretch across the globe to produce goods as fast as they can, many governments are pushing protections and trying to tilt international agreements to the favor or their pet corporations. We have been decades since any real large scale war has occurred, we've had regional incidents which although tragic don't even approach the kind of combat seen historically. To add to all this many countries are seeing a rise in nationalism, believing their country to be the best equipped to lead into the future. Research and technology espionage is rife throughout all the world, every country desperately trying to get a leg up for the next conflict. Meanwhile more people are better off than they have ever been historically, global industry has brought many formerly impoverished nations to the forefront of manufacturing and prosperity, the brightest and best aren't flocking to just one or two major world powers but many are choosing to stay in their own country and develop it.
So let me ask you, does our world sound more like the world of 1910, or the world of 1930?
- kubanczyk 7y agoNeither. One crucial thing changed: nuclear weapons can hurt leaders as much as they can hurt their armies or their populations. We've never had such experiment in the entire history. And oh boy aren't the results just fine. In 1910 or 1930 going to war was a breeze. There was no incentive for major leaders not to do it.
- baybal2 7y agoGood observation, the advent of modern technology made it much harder to have "small, victorious war". All conflicts in between major powers risks becoming a total war, or a deep conflict very quickly. Paradoxically, the deep economic interdependence today can actually incentivise conflict, with thinking "it will hurt them more than us"