3 ms·

You can’t just eyeball these graphs and assume the trend is linear: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/sea-level-acceleration-3/ https://tamino.wordpress.c

by nfg 7y ago

You can’t just eyeball these graphs and assume the trend is linear: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/sea-level-acceleration-3/ https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/sea-level-accelerati... See also https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/14/sea-level-acceleration-denial/ https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/14/sea-level-accelerati...

tomatotomato37 7y ago
Mate, you're trying to contradict NOAA government data with someone's blog.
- nfg 7y ago
  No, I’m not. The NOAA site does not posit that the underlying trend is linear over the period - it simply displays a linear fit on the graphs. See here for more details https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/04/16/recent-sea-level-change/ https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/04/16/recent-sea-level-cha...
  - mehrdadn 7y ago
    > The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval. I hope you'll forgive the reader for interpreting this as them positing that the trend is linear.
    - nfg 7y ago
      They’re forgiven - but if you’re saying NOAA are saying the trend is linear and will continue to be you’re wrong. All the site is saying is it displays the “average” trend over the period as a straight line. It’s a comment on how the data is presented, not on the underlying dynamics.
ash 7y ago
From NOAA web site, when you click on "Previous RSL Trends" button: > Although the trend may vary with the end year, there is no statistically significant difference between the calculated trends if their 95% confidence intervals overlap. Therefore, the most recent calculated trend is not necessarily more accurate than the previous trends; it is merely a little more precise. If several recent years have anomalously high or low water levels, the values may actually move slightly away from the true long-term linear trend.

3 ms·

You can’t just eyeball these graphs and assume the trend is linear: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/sea-level-acceleration-3/ https://tamino.wordpress.c

by nfg 7y ago

tomatotomato37 7y ago
Mate, you're trying to contradict NOAA government data with someone's blog.
- nfg 7y ago
  No, I’m not. The NOAA site does not posit that the underlying trend is linear over the period - it simply displays a linear fit on the graphs. See here for more details https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/04/16/recent-sea-level-change/ https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/04/16/recent-sea-level-cha...
  - mehrdadn 7y ago
    > The long-term linear trend is also shown, including its 95% confidence interval. I hope you'll forgive the reader for interpreting this as them positing that the trend is linear.
    - nfg 7y ago
      They’re forgiven - but if you’re saying NOAA are saying the trend is linear and will continue to be you’re wrong. All the site is saying is it displays the “average” trend over the period as a straight line. It’s a comment on how the data is presented, not on the underlying dynamics.
ash 7y ago
From NOAA web site, when you click on "Previous RSL Trends" button: > Although the trend may vary with the end year, there is no statistically significant difference between the calculated trends if their 95% confidence intervals overlap. Therefore, the most recent calculated trend is not necessarily more accurate than the previous trends; it is merely a little more precise. If several recent years have anomalously high or low water levels, the values may actually move slightly away from the true long-term linear trend.