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Early climate models successfully predicted global warming
- pstuart 7y agoMy fear is that the models have been too conservative.
- sebazzz 7y agoIn any case, it should be clear by now that the truth doesn't matter unless it brings more money (companies) or career perspective (politicians).
- dirtydroog 7y agoTo be honest, your fear is being realised since every couple of weeks or so, there's an 'X worse than previously thought' article about something.
- pstuart 7y agoMy fear is being realized because the evidence is in plain sight: coral bleaching, ocean acidification impacting sea-life, record heat waves, etc. Trivializing it by making my comment into nothing more than overreacting to tabloid journalism is insulting.
- spodek 7y agoLimits to Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth didn't try to predict specifics so much as find trends, which they did, like overshoot and collapse, the counterintuitive effects of technology and innovation, the importance of population, goals, and values. Nonetheless, their Business As Usual model from 1972 is eerily accurate and it applies to more than just climate. This study https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/is-global-collapse-imminent https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-pap... tracked predictions to 2014 and the Business As Usual model continues with reasonable accuracy. That's not good news for its predictions for the next few decades, at least not if you like food and a stable human population.