>Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude of the advantage. Admittedly there's no data that exists to support a large magni

>Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude of the advantage. Admittedly there's no data that exists to support a large magnitude of advantage. Likewise though, the author has none either yet is making the claim that it "doesn't matter". It's purely theoretical. It would be like saying that whoever wins the jump-ball at the start of a basketball game is irrelevant, because the other team gets the ball at half anyway. Yet strangely enough, we find it gives a 3.5% win rate advantage. https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/ https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/