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>Yes, he’s right, that assumption is not warranted. We don’t need to know immediately and the desire for immediacy is part of the problem, but that no longer ma

by elhudy 7y ago

>Yes, he’s right, that assumption is not warranted. We don’t need to know immediately and the desire for immediacy is part of the problem, but that no longer matters. It hasn’t mattered for years. In the currently-existing media-political environment, waiting a day or a week is unthinkable. This premise seems at least somewhat disagreeable. Let's say I live in New Hampshire and am equally partial to two candidates, and dislike the front-running candidate. It's advantageous for me to know as soon as possible which of my two favorable candidates best competes against the front-runner, so I can focus my donations and support on them asap. Am I missing the point?

maxerickson 7y ago
Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude of the advantage. If we take the week between the Iowa mountains and the New Hampshire primary, donating 24 or 36 hours earlier is likely to be worth essentially nothing.
- elhudy 7y ago
  >Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude of the advantage. Admittedly there's no data that exists to support a large magnitude of advantage. Likewise though, the author has none either yet is making the claim that it "doesn't matter". It's purely theoretical. It would be like saying that whoever wins the jump-ball at the start of a basketball game is irrelevant, because the other team gets the ball at half anyway. Yet strangely enough, we find it gives a 3.5% win rate advantage. https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/ https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/
yongjik 7y ago
The passage you quoted reminds me of those pseudo-intellectuals who, when met with (say) a pothole on the street, launches a treatise on how modern society is addicted to speed, and how our lives could be enriched if we could just stop and admire our surroundings, instead of trying to drive from point A to B so goddamn fast. I'll bet most of these people never had to bring their kids from kindergarten while buying groceries for a family.

by elhudy 7y ago

maxerickson 7y ago

Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude of the advantage. If we take the week between the Iowa mountains and the New Hampshire primary, donating 24 or 36 hours earlier is likely to be worth essentially nothing.

elhudy 7y ago
>Your example is coherent, but you don't make an argument about the magnitude of the advantage. Admittedly there's no data that exists to support a large magnitude of advantage. Likewise though, the author has none either yet is making the claim that it "doesn't matter". It's purely theoretical. It would be like saying that whoever wins the jump-ball at the start of a basketball game is irrelevant, because the other team gets the ball at half anyway. Yet strangely enough, we find it gives a 3.5% win rate advantage. https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/ https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/

yongjik 7y ago

The passage you quoted reminds me of those pseudo-intellectuals who, when met with (say) a pothole on the street, launches a treatise on how modern society is addicted to speed, and how our lives could be enriched if we could just stop and admire our surroundings, instead of trying to drive from point A to B so goddamn fast. I'll bet most of these people never had to bring their kids from kindergarten while buying groceries for a family.