I'm aware of the existence of prediction markets, but I'm not aware of much evidence that they are actually good oracles, especially for events that will happen

I'm aware of the existence of prediction markets, but I'm not aware of much evidence that they are actually good oracles, especially for events that will happen in the medium to long term. Do you happen to have any evidence you'd like to share about this? Practically speaking, I don't think this can really work, because I don't think employees will necessarily feel good about betting on things like this. You also have some pretty severe moral hazards when you have employees who stand to gain financially if things go badly for the company. If I take a significant short position on NYC accepting an Amazon headquarters, I now have an incentive to leak negative things about the employer or otherwise sabotage the deal in order to get my contracts to close in my favor.