I'm not arguing that people shouldn't make decision-irrelevant predictions. My main point is that if you want valuable forecasts, a good place to start are deci

I'm not arguing that people shouldn't make decision-irrelevant predictions. My main point is that if you want valuable forecasts, a good place to start are decision-relevant ones. Putting predictions in essays seems good but would not provide as much value in my view. To use an example from your article, an essay helps you organize your thoughts, but making a simple decision tree would typically help more when applicable in my view. Essays are more general, of course, as not all predictions are decision-relevant. In the decision analysis class I took (which, incidentally, Vaniver from your link also took) you typically had to do both for the projects. Understanding a problem space is absolutely necessary to setting up the decision analysis. So yes, research is important! And there is value (not considered in a typical decision analysis) in making predictions for their own sake. A large fraction, perhaps even the majority, of the predictions I've made on PredictionBook were more for my own education than anything else. And I learned a lot from that.