4 ms·

This underlines the observation that internal combustion engine is officially dead. It's just waiting to be buried.

by Lordarminius 7y ago

gambiting 7y ago
I mean, with ICEs being taxed at something like 120%, it's not a surprise, is it?
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  I think it's only a surprise that other countries don't force drivers to pay the externalities of a combustion vehicle. EVs are still making a great showing globally, and market penetration will increase as costs come down. Combustion vehicles aren't "dead", but it wouldn't be outrageous to call the peak; China is one of the largest markets in the world and they are pushing hard to go straight to EVs. Legacy automakers will follow or die. You wouldn't sit in the garage with a combustion vehicle running; the planet is simply a bigger, shared garage. Now that EVs are proven, perhaps it's time people lean harder on their governments to sunset unnecessary combustion vehicles. Norway intends to prohibit new combustion vehicles purchases in 2025. Several other countries 2030. I expect this trend to ramp as EVs get cheaper and climate change accelerates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Jurisdictions_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... (Jurisdictions with planned fossil-fuel vehicle bans)
  - gambiting 7y ago
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of these are actually banning petrol/diesel car sales at all. A hybrid/plug-in hybrid cars are exempt - so pretty much every manufacturer has a "mild-hybrid" version of every model, with something like a tiny 1kW battery to help with the initial movement, and that's enough to get around this ban. No?
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      True! But it's likely you see these sorts of hybrids phased out, similar to how Chevy killed the Volt in favor of full battery electric vehicles. The ban can change to be more onerous at any time, and manufacturing capex decisions are decided on decade timelines. It would be a shame if you attempted such a compliance hack only to have your manufacturing line lifetime profitability nuked with the stroke of a legislative pen.
bryanlarsen 7y ago
ICE captured 56% of the market despite a 100% tax disadvantage. To me that indicates ICE is alive and well.
newnewpdro 7y ago
ICEs won't be dead until they're difficult to find/afford to fuel and operate reliably on a daily basis. At some point it seems inevitable, but I don't think we'll be seeing gas stations closing down any time soon. There's still a lot of oil to be burned.

This underlines the observation that internal combustion engine is officially dead. It's just waiting to be buried.

gambiting 7y ago

I mean, with ICEs being taxed at something like 120%, it's not a surprise, is it?

toomuchtodo 7y ago
I think it's only a surprise that other countries don't force drivers to pay the externalities of a combustion vehicle. EVs are still making a great showing globally, and market penetration will increase as costs come down. Combustion vehicles aren't "dead", but it wouldn't be outrageous to call the peak; China is one of the largest markets in the world and they are pushing hard to go straight to EVs. Legacy automakers will follow or die. You wouldn't sit in the garage with a combustion vehicle running; the planet is simply a bigger, shared garage. Now that EVs are proven, perhaps it's time people lean harder on their governments to sunset unnecessary combustion vehicles. Norway intends to prohibit new combustion vehicles purchases in 2025. Several other countries 2030. I expect this trend to ramp as EVs get cheaper and climate change accelerates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Jurisdictions_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic... (Jurisdictions with planned fossil-fuel vehicle bans)
- gambiting 7y ago
  Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of these are actually banning petrol/diesel car sales at all. A hybrid/plug-in hybrid cars are exempt - so pretty much every manufacturer has a "mild-hybrid" version of every model, with something like a tiny 1kW battery to help with the initial movement, and that's enough to get around this ban. No?
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    True! But it's likely you see these sorts of hybrids phased out, similar to how Chevy killed the Volt in favor of full battery electric vehicles. The ban can change to be more onerous at any time, and manufacturing capex decisions are decided on decade timelines. It would be a shame if you attempted such a compliance hack only to have your manufacturing line lifetime profitability nuked with the stroke of a legislative pen.

bryanlarsen 7y ago

ICE captured 56% of the market despite a 100% tax disadvantage. To me that indicates ICE is alive and well.

newnewpdro 7y ago

ICEs won't be dead until they're difficult to find/afford to fuel and operate reliably on a daily basis. At some point it seems inevitable, but I don't think we'll be seeing gas stations closing down any time soon. There's still a lot of oil to be burned.